We're building LLMs that understand the world
LLMs struggle with hallucination, confabulation, and reasoning.
We solve this problem by using "system 2" approaches — things like 'world models' and reasoning engines — to better understand the world and avoid making mistakes.
To prove this, we're running forecasting predictions on this website. We predict major events and see how good we are at doing so.
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Our Research and POCs
Natural Gas Forecast (and Forecasting Template) for September 2024
This post provides a forecast for natural gas (specifically, NG00) prices for September 30, 2024. We use the post to showcase the new forecasting template we will be developing in our product. Read more...
March 2024 CPI Forecasts - Postmortem
We ran a CPI forecasting competition between GPT-4, Claude, Llama 2, and Gemini. The results were informative (GPT-4 and Llama 2 did the best!), and help clarify our roadmap. Learn more about the results and how we're improving forecasting, thanks to them. Read more...
Emerging Trajectories v0.2.8: News Agents, Crawlers, and RAG
emergingtrajectories v0.2.8 includes major updates! We've added agents that read news, fact extraction and querying via Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG), and new forecating agents. Read more...
Research Agents That Cite Sources
We released emergingtrajectories v0.2.4, which includes agents that cite sources. You'll now see which sources are being used to inform and update forecasts. Read more...
Learn about our vision for Emerging Trajectories. We describe the goals behind this project, why we believe it's possible, and what we are building towards. Read more...
Forecasting CPI (Inflation) for Jan '24
We ran an experiment to rack CPI forecasts for January 2024, starting in mid-January and ending on February 12. The actual results, announced on February 13, were 0.3% monthly growth in inflation, whereas our agent consistently predicted 0.4%. Read more...
Tutorial: Creating and Updating Forecasts
Emerging Trajectories v0.2.3 comes with agents and utility functions that make it incredibly easy to create and update forecasts. Learn how to do both by creating your first forecasts. Read more...
An active forecasting agent looking at the oil price (USD per barrel) for the end of the 2024 calendar year. Read more...
The Emerging Trajectories product roadmap, mental model, and assumptions. This is what we are working on in Q1 2024! Read more...
Forecasting GDP Growth in Q4 2023 (with LLMs)
In this exploration, we use web crawling agents to try and predict the Bureau of Economic Analysis' inflation announcement for Q4 2023. Read more...
Forecasting the New Hampshire Republican Primary with LLMs
Our first experiments focused on forecasting the New Hampshire Republican Primary. We provide an overview of our performance and takeaways for future experiments. Read more...
Get Involved or Learn More
If you'd like us to try specific forecasts or want to learn more, email us at hello -at- phaseai -dot- com!
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