Geopolitics in Africa: Analysis for Algeria (June '24)

Risk Score: 3
High-profile visits with various global leaders suggest a neutral diplomatic stance1.
1: According to the pontiff's schedule for Thursday, he will be having one-on-one meetings with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy, France's Emmanuel Macron, India's Narendra Modi, Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Canada's Justin Trudeau, Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kenya's William Ruto, Algeria's Abdelmadjid Tebboune, and the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, among others. View Source
Algeria's varied military, political, and economic activities reflect its nuanced alignment in the broader geopolitical arena. Politically, Algeria has sought to balance its international relations, engaging with both Western and Eastern powers to maximize its strategic benefits. For instance, high-profile visits and meetings between Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and global leaders, including those from the IMF, underscore Algeria's efforts to navigate an independent diplomatic course2. These engagements align with Algeria's strategy to diversify its external relations, indicating a mostly neutral stance in its geopolitical alignment but with slight leanings towards Russia in specific areas such as military cooperation.

Militarily, Algeria has shown a tendency to align more closely with Russia, a relationship rooted in historical ties and ongoing defense collaborations. This relationship highlights Algeria's strategic calculations to maintain robust defense ties with Moscow, reflecting a slight preference towards Russia. Economically, while Algeria remains flexible by engaging with international financial institutions and diverse global partners, its overarching actions in military contexts suggest a nuanced but clear tilt towards Russia. This complex interplay of maintaining broad diplomatic engagements while fostering strong military ties with Russia contributes to Algeria's balanced approach, ultimately keeping its risk score at a "3" for neutrality but indicating an underlying preference for leveraging its relationship with Russia for national defense and security interests.
2: According to the pontiff's schedule for Thursday, he will be having one-on-one meetings with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy, France's Emmanuel Macron, India's Narendra Modi, Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Canada's Justin Trudeau, Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kenya's William Ruto, Algeria's Abdelmadjid Tebboune, and the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, among others. View Source