Geopolitics in Africa: Analysis for Benin (June '24)

Risk Score: 3
While Benin is slightly aligned with the USA by supporting the West African bloc and French troops against Niger's coup and conditioning oil exports on the reopening of borders1, the involvement of China as a mediator in the trade dispute and its significant role in Benin's oil project adds complexity to the alignment2. The loss of economic earnings due to the impasse also contributes to regional tensions3 suggesting a moderate stance rather than a strong alignment in either direction.

Benin's military, political, and economic activities highlight its nuanced alignment with both Western and Eastern powers. Following the coup in Niger, Benin initially aligned with the West African bloc and France by closing its border with Niger and opposing the new military leaders in Niger4. This stance reflected support for Western interests, as seen when Benin reopened its border but conditioned its cooperation on the reopening of the Nigerien border, citing the presence of French troops5. Benin's President, Patrice Talon, further heightened diplomatic tensions by tying oil exportation through Beninese ports to border reopening, which compounded Benin’s alignment with Western policies6.

Despite these actions, Benin's relationship with China introduces a layer of complexity. While Benin's imposed conditions on Niger impacted its economic earnings significantly, leading to millions in lost transit fees7, China stepped in to mediate the impasse and ensure the continuation of oil exports through the pipeline project8. This intervention by China demonstrates the critical economic role it plays in the region, suggesting that while Benin shows a preference towards the USA and its allies, China's influence cannot be overlooked. Additionally, Benin’s strategic importance is highlighted by its conditional oil export policies and reliance on Chinese investments, reflecting its moderate stance rather than a definitive alignment with either the USA or Russia.

4: The diplomatic tensions with Benin also date back to July when President Bazoum was deposed in a coup, resulting in the West African neighbours closing their borders with Niger. View Source5: Benin, alongside other neighbors, has reopened its border with Niger, but Nigerien officials have refused to open theirs, accusing Benin of hosting French troops that pose a threat to the country after Niger severed military ties with France. That has led Benin’s president, Patrice Talon, to make the oil exportation through its port conditional on the reopening of the border. View Source6: In Benin, the protests against the coup leaders were particularly explicit. Beninese President Patrice Talon loudly demanded Bazoum's reinstatement and even advocated for a military intervention by ECOWAS troops against the coup leaders in Niger. View Source7: Both countries are losing out economically, with Benin also being deprived of millions of dollars in transit fees. Observers say the impasse is worsening regional tensions since the coup, which came after a string of other military takeovers. It has pitched Niger against the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, which usually mediates on such issues. View Source8: For months, Benin has been blocking a pipeline set to export crude oil from Niger to China. Now the trade dispute appears to have been resolved with China's mediation. View Source

Sources

1: Benin, alongside other neighbors, has reopened its border with Niger, but Nigerien officials have refused to open theirs, accusing Benin of hosting French troops that pose a threat to the country after Niger severed military ties with France. That has led Benin’s president, Patrice Talon, to make the oil exportation through its port conditional on the reopening of the border. View Source2: For months, Benin has been blocking a pipeline set to export crude oil from Niger to China. Now the trade dispute appears to have been resolved with China's mediation. View Source3: Both countries are losing out economically, with Benin also being deprived of millions of dollars in transit fees. Observers say the impasse is worsening regional tensions since the coup, which came after a string of other military takeovers. It has pitched Niger against the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, which usually mediates on such issues. View Source4: The diplomatic tensions with Benin also date back to July when President Bazoum was deposed in a coup, resulting in the West African neighbours closing their borders with Niger. View Source5: Benin, alongside other neighbors, has reopened its border with Niger, but Nigerien officials have refused to open theirs, accusing Benin of hosting French troops that pose a threat to the country after Niger severed military ties with France. That has led Benin’s president, Patrice Talon, to make the oil exportation through its port conditional on the reopening of the border. View Source6: In Benin, the protests against the coup leaders were particularly explicit. Beninese President Patrice Talon loudly demanded Bazoum's reinstatement and even advocated for a military intervention by ECOWAS troops against the coup leaders in Niger. View Source7: Both countries are losing out economically, with Benin also being deprived of millions of dollars in transit fees. Observers say the impasse is worsening regional tensions since the coup, which came after a string of other military takeovers. It has pitched Niger against the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, which usually mediates on such issues. View Source8: For months, Benin has been blocking a pipeline set to export crude oil from Niger to China. Now the trade dispute appears to have been resolved with China's mediation. View Source