Geopolitics in Africa: Analysis for Burkina Faso (June '24)
Risk Score: 5
Burkina Faso is showing significant preference for aligning with Russia. This is evidenced by the expulsion of French troops, the deepening of military ties with Russia, the introduction of Russian mercenaries, and the announcement of more military instructors from Russia. These developments underscore a significant alignment with Russia1234.
Burkina Faso is showing significant preference for aligning with Russia. This is evidenced by the expulsion of French troops, the deepening of military ties with Russia, the introduction of Russian mercenaries, and the announcement of more military instructors from Russia. These developments underscore a significant alignment with Russia1234.
1: But insecurity in Burkina Faso has increased dramatically since the army took power in 2022, kicking out French troops, saying they had not done enough to tackle the jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The junta has meanwhile deepened military ties with Russia. View Source2: Having cultivated very close relations with Burkina Faso and other Sahel countries in recent years, Russia is already reportedly taking steps to ensure Capt Traoré’s administration remains stable. View Source3: More Russian mercenaries were recently flown from Mali to "protect" the Burkinabè leader in the aftermath of the attack, according to reports. View Source4: The two attacks came about a week after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Burkina Faso and announced plans to send more military instructors to the country. View Source
Burkina Faso's military, political, and economic activities demonstrate a significant pivot towards Russian interests, further distancing itself from American influence. Following the 2022 military coup that ousted French troops, Burkina Faso's administration has fostered close military ties with Russia, as illustrated by the arrival of Russian mercenaries to protect the Burkinabè leader and plans to bring more military instructors into the country567. The junta's actions underscore a definitive shift in alignment, bolstering Russian strategic interests in the region amid deteriorating relations with traditional Western partners89.
The context of this realignment mirrors broader trends in the Sahel region, where military governments in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso are gradually severing ties with France and the United States, opting instead to reinforce alliances with Russia10. This strategic reorientation is evident in Burkina Faso's efforts to ensure Capt Traoré’s administration remains secure through deeper collaboration with Russian military forces11. However, the escalating jihadist insurgency and ongoing violence, which remain largely unaddressed despite these shifts, indicate the complex dynamics at play as Burkina Faso navigates its security and political future1213.
The context of this realignment mirrors broader trends in the Sahel region, where military governments in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso are gradually severing ties with France and the United States, opting instead to reinforce alliances with Russia10. This strategic reorientation is evident in Burkina Faso's efforts to ensure Capt Traoré’s administration remains secure through deeper collaboration with Russian military forces11. However, the escalating jihadist insurgency and ongoing violence, which remain largely unaddressed despite these shifts, indicate the complex dynamics at play as Burkina Faso navigates its security and political future1213.
5: But insecurity in Burkina Faso has increased dramatically since the army took power in 2022, kicking out French troops, saying they had not done enough to tackle the jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The junta has meanwhile deepened military ties with Russia. View Source6: More Russian mercenaries were recently flown from Mali to "protect" the Burkinabè leader in the aftermath of the attack, according to reports. View Source7: The two attacks came about a week after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Burkina Faso and announced plans to send more military instructors to the country. View Source8: Having cultivated very close relations with Burkina Faso and other Sahel countries in recent years, Russia is already reportedly taking steps to ensure Capt Traoré’s administration remains stable. View Source9: In February, Macron tasked former minister Jean-Marie Bockel with working out the new modalities of the French military presence with African partners. View Source10: Known as a global hot spot for violent extremism, the Sahel region’s worsening security crisis comes as military coups are toppling democratic governments. As the military governments struggle to contain the violence, they are increasingly severing security with traditional partners France and the United States and turning to Russia for support. View Source11: Having cultivated very close relations with Burkina Faso and other Sahel countries in recent years, Russia is already reportedly taking steps to ensure Capt Traoré’s administration remains stable. View Source12: Major military setbacks or security failures are sensitive issues in Burkina Faso. View Source13: Burkina Faso has been battling Islamist insurgents for several years and about half the country is outside government control. View Source