Geopolitics in Africa: Analysis for Chad (June '24)
Risk Score: 4
Chad's current situation shows a significant amount of internal and external pressure influencing its geopolitical stance. The internal turmoil from the ammunition depot explosions, substantial refugee influx due to the Sudanese civil war, and historical political instability present immediate challenges1. Additionally, external factors, such as Russian engagement through Lavrov's visit and paramilitary presence in neighboring countries, indicate rising Russian influence2. The detailed evidence of UAE arms transfers via Chad and US concerns over rebel attacks underscore Chad's precarious position3. While Chad is heavily stressed internally and externally, its geopolitical preferences lean slightly but not decisively towards Russia.
Chad's current situation shows a significant amount of internal and external pressure influencing its geopolitical stance. The internal turmoil from the ammunition depot explosions, substantial refugee influx due to the Sudanese civil war, and historical political instability present immediate challenges1. Additionally, external factors, such as Russian engagement through Lavrov's visit and paramilitary presence in neighboring countries, indicate rising Russian influence2. The detailed evidence of UAE arms transfers via Chad and US concerns over rebel attacks underscore Chad's precarious position3. While Chad is heavily stressed internally and externally, its geopolitical preferences lean slightly but not decisively towards Russia.
1: Chad, a country of nearly 18 million people, has been reeling from political turmoil before and after a controversial presidential election that resulted in Déby’s victory. He had led the country as interim president during the period of military rule that followed the death of his father in 2021. View Source2: Landlocked Chad is surrounded by the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya and Niger that host Russian paramilitary forces resulting from the reorganisation of the Wagner group whose founder Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a mysterious plane crash last August. View Source3: Dozens dead in Chad capital as security forces fire on protesters 20 Oct 2022Unity ‘the only way forward’ says Chad PM as anti-junta anger rises18 Oct 2022Libyan militia detains hundreds of Chadians after poachers arrested16 Sept 2022‘I wanted to be on the side of women’: Mahamat-Saleh Haroun on his abortion drama set in Chad4 Feb 2022Idriss Déby obituary13 May 2021Protests erupt in N’Djamena as Chadians demand civilian rule27 Apr 2021Chad’s president Idriss Déby dies from combat wounds, military says20 Apr 2021US orders non-essential personnel out of Chad over fears of rebel attacks on capital18 Apr 2021 View Source
Chad's military, political, and economic landscape is notably influenced by both internal instability and external geopolitical pressures. The country has been grappling with significant challenges, including political turmoil before and after the controversial presidential election that led to Déby’s victory4. This instability is compounded by the explosion at an ammunition depot in the capital, N'Djamena, which resulted in multiple casualties5. The influx of around 600,000 refugees fleeing the civil war in Sudan further exacerbates local tensions, highlighting Chad's precarious domestic environment6.
Externally, Chad is navigating complex influences from both Russia and the United States. Russia's engagement is evident through Sergey Lavrov's Africa tour, which included Chad7, and the presence of Russian paramilitary forces in neighboring countries like the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya, and Niger8. Despite these signals of Russian interest, Chad remains somewhat ambivalent, as demonstrated by historical ties with Western powers, including hosting French soldiers9. Meanwhile, the US's concerns about rebel attacks and the evacuation of non-essential personnel indicate ongoing safety and stability issues affecting US-Chad relations10. Thus, while Chad shows a modest tilt towards Russia, particularly through recent engagements, it remains neutral, driven by the need to manage both internal division and external alliances.
Externally, Chad is navigating complex influences from both Russia and the United States. Russia's engagement is evident through Sergey Lavrov's Africa tour, which included Chad7, and the presence of Russian paramilitary forces in neighboring countries like the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya, and Niger8. Despite these signals of Russian interest, Chad remains somewhat ambivalent, as demonstrated by historical ties with Western powers, including hosting French soldiers9. Meanwhile, the US's concerns about rebel attacks and the evacuation of non-essential personnel indicate ongoing safety and stability issues affecting US-Chad relations10. Thus, while Chad shows a modest tilt towards Russia, particularly through recent engagements, it remains neutral, driven by the need to manage both internal division and external alliances.
4: Chad, a country of nearly 18 million people, has been reeling from political turmoil before and after a controversial presidential election that resulted in Déby’s victory. He had led the country as interim president during the period of military rule that followed the death of his father in 2021. View Source5: A fire broke out overnight at a military ammunition depot in Chad's capital causing a series of explosions, government spokesman and Foreign Affairs Minister Koulamallah Abderaman said. View Source6: About 600,000 people have fled violence and famine to seek refuge in Chad since the Sudanese civil war broke out in April 2023, but their presence has fanned tensions as local resentment builds. View Source7: Russia's Lavrov wraps up Africa tour in Chad View Source8: Landlocked Chad is surrounded by the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya and Niger that host Russian paramilitary forces resulting from the reorganisation of the Wagner group whose founder Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a mysterious plane crash last August. View Source9: Chad, ruled by Mahamat Idriss Deby, the son of Idriss Deby Itno who was president for over 30 years, is the last Sahel country to host French soldiers. View Source10: Dozens dead in Chad capital as security forces fire on protesters 20 Oct 2022Unity ‘the only way forward’ says Chad PM as anti-junta anger rises18 Oct 2022Libyan militia detains hundreds of Chadians after poachers arrested16 Sept 2022‘I wanted to be on the side of women’: Mahamat-Saleh Haroun on his abortion drama set in Chad4 Feb 2022Idriss Déby obituary13 May 2021Protests erupt in N’Djamena as Chadians demand civilian rule27 Apr 2021Chad’s president Idriss Déby dies from combat wounds, military says20 Apr 2021US orders non-essential personnel out of Chad over fears of rebel attacks on capital18 Apr 2021 View Source