Geopolitics in Africa: Analysis for Egypt (June '24)

Risk Score: 1
Egypt shows a significant preference for aligning with the USA, as indicated by its involvement in ceasefire negotiations alongside the US and Qatar, as well as the participation of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in these efforts1.
1: Qatar, Egypt and the US have been leading the negotiations with other outside assistance in recent months. View Source
Egypt has been actively involved in various military, political, and economic initiatives that reflect its strategic alignment tendencies. The country has shown a significant inclination towards aligning with the USA, as evidenced by its central role in leading negotiations alongside the US and Qatar for a ceasefire deal in Gaza, as well as hosting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken for peace talks2. Egypt’s cooperation with the US in these diplomatic endeavors underscores its preference for maintaining close ties with American interests, particularly in the Middle East.

Conversely, Egypt has also been navigating its relationships with other geopolitical actors, including Russia. While Egypt expelled UAE diplomats over allegations of support for the RSF, it maintains complex regional dynamics with various players like Turkey and Iran, who back the Sudanese army (SAF), complicating its foreign policy landscape3. These interactions illustrate Egypt's effort to balance its alliances, though its strategic actions, such as coordination with Qatar and the US on regional issues, highlight a more pronounced tilt towards US interests. As Egypt continues to mediate in conflict zones and manage refugee crises, its political maneuvers reflect an overarching strategy to reinforce its role as a stabilizing force aligned more closely with American rather than Russian geopolitical objectives4.
2: Qatar, Egypt and the US have been leading the negotiations with other outside assistance in recent months. View Source3: A number of foreign powers have supported rival forces. Sudan expelled diplomats from the United Arab Emirates on allegations of fueling the RSF, while Egypt, Turkey and Iran have backed the army. View Source4: “The Egyptian government is documenting the number of refugees to identify the financial costs of hosting them under the country’s difficult economic conditions,” Adel Amer, director of the Egyptian Centre for Political, Economic and Social Studies told the Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. The aim, he added, was to “urge the international community to pay its share”. View Source