Geopolitics in Africa: Analysis for Mali (June '24)

Risk Score: 5
Mali is showing significant preference for aligning with Russia, as evidenced by multiple data points. Russian mercenaries from Mali have been deployed to Burkina Faso to protect its leader1. The withdrawal of French troops has led to an increased preference for Russian partnerships by the Malian junta2. Russia supports the putschists in Mali, fueling domestic conflicts rather than stabilizing the situation3. Furthermore, Mali is receiving military instructors from Russia4, and this is part of Russia's broader strategy to enhance its influence in Africa, particularly among military juntas5.

Mali's current military, political, and economic activities demonstrate a significant alignment with Russian interests. The withdrawal of French troops from Mali has heightened insecurity in the Sahel region and precipitated a rise in military coups, which has driven the Malian junta to increasingly seek Russian support to bolster its security apparatus. Russian mercenaries from Mali have been deployed to Burkina Faso to safeguard its leader in the wake of militant attacks, a move that underscores the deepening bilateral ties between Russia and Mali6. Additionally, Mali has been receiving Russian military instructors, which indicates a growing dependency on Russian military expertise and support7. These actions form part of Russia's broader strategy to augment its influence in Africa, particularly among nations ruled by military juntas8.

Mali's significant preference for aligning with Russia over the US is evident through multiple data points. For example, the junta's inclination towards Russian partnerships has contradicted American interests in the region9. Moreover, Russia’s support of putschists in Mali has escalated domestic conflicts rather than stabilizing the nation, further entrenching Mali's alliance with Russia10. The cumulative effect of these developments paints Mali as highly aligned with Russian interests, a trend reflected in the frequent deployment of Russian mercenaries and military instructors, solidifying Mali's Risk Score of 5, indicating an overwhelming alignment towards Russia.

6: More Russian mercenaries were recently flown from Mali to "protect" the Burkinabè leader in the aftermath of the attack, according to reports. View Source7: The two attacks came about a week after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Burkina Faso and announced plans to send more military instructors to the country. View Source8: Russian military personnel arrived in Niamey to train their soldiers and set up an air defense system. Russia has been trying to build stronger ties with several African nations currently ruled by military juntas. View Source9: US military looks for west Africa ‘Plan B’ OUT OF NIGER: The US joint chiefs of staff chairman is in Botswana for a gathering of African chiefs of defense as Washington seeks to rebuild its presence in the continent Reuters, GABORONE The top US general is making a rare trip to Africa to discuss ways to preserve some of the US presence in West Africa after Niger decided to kick out the US military in favor of partnering with Russia in a major setback for Washington.US Air Force General C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters before landing in Botswana yesterday for a gathering of African chiefs of defense that he was going to speak with several partners in the region.“I do see some opportunities. And there’s countries that we’re already working with in West Africa,” Brown told reporters traveling with him. US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Air Force General C.Q. Brown speaks at the 156th National Memorial Day Observance in the Memorial Amphitheater at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia, on May 27. Photo: AP Building on those relationships may “provide opportunities for us to posture some of the capability we had in Niger in some other locations,” he added.Brown declined to say which countries were under consideration. However, a US official told Reuters that US President Joe Biden’s administration has had initial conversations with countries including Benin, Ivory Coast and Ghana. Still, the US military is not expected to be able to replicate its muscular counterterrorism footprint in Niger any time soon. In particular, its ejection means losing Air Base 201, which the US built near Agadez in central Niger at a cost of more than US$100 million.Until Niger’s military coup last year, the base had been key to the US and Niger’s shared fight against insurgents who have killed thousands of people and displaced millions more.A second US official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said not to expect another big US base or wholesale relocation of US troops from Niger to somewhere else.“We do not expect a large military construction announcement or a significant new base to appear anywhere,” the second official said.The changing political landscape in west and central Africa presents a dilemma for the US. The region has seen eight coups over four years, including in Niger and its neighbors Burkina Faso and Mali.The juntas now ruling many of those countries are less willing to work with Western countries, including the US — whose military is legally barred from supporting governments that seized power through coup. They are increasingly looking to Russia, which faces no such constraints.“The US had solid partners in the region,” said Catherine Nzuki at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.“And now that the US has been pushed out of Niger, the political question that I think the Department of State is asking, the Department of Defense is asking, is: Are we losing allies in the region? Are things changing too rapidly for us to keep up?” she said.The second US official acknowledged that the US military was taking stock of the rapid changes.“We are doing some introspection right now and thinking about what our modified goals should be,” the official said.The extent to which the US’ modified goals will allow it to address the threat from Islamist groups expanding across the arid, impoverished Sahel region remains unclear.“The terrorist threat is alarming,” the second official said.So far, the US withdrawal from Niger is being completed on schedule ahead of a Sept. 15 deadline, US officials say, with only about 600 troops remaining at Air Base 101, which is next to Diori Hamani International Airport in the capital, Niamey.As the US exits, Russia has deployed a number of military forces to the same base, where they are carrying out training activities. US officials say US and Russian troops have no contact with each other.Brown held out hope that even after the US withdraws there might be a way to maintain some kind of future security relationship with Niger, given the years-long investment in military ties.“We have an embassy there, so we still have relationships. And so I don’t know if the door is completely closed,” Brown said. “And so if in the future, if the opportunity presents itself to rebuilt, re-strengthen the relationship, we’ll work with the rest of the USG [US government] to figure out how best to do that.” Comments will be moderated. Keep comments relevant to the article. Remarks containing abusive and obscene language, personal attacks of any kind or promotion will be removed and the user banned. Final decision will be at the discretion of the Taipei Times. Most Popular 1Chinese sub sighting sparks debate 2Taiwan records 77 PLA aircraft over 48 hours 3Passengers arrive safely after scare on flight from SK 4TSMC plant halted over possible archeological find 5PRC uses religion to influence elections View Source10: These goals also have consequences in Europe, said Heinemann-Grüder. "The Russians use their power to exploit the chaos unfolding in various African countries — not just in Sudan. They also support other putschists, as in Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso and Niger. There, this cooperation with putschists does not lead to a stabilization but, on the contrary, to an escalation of the domestic conflicts," he said. View Source

Sources

1: More Russian mercenaries were recently flown from Mali to "protect" the Burkinabè leader in the aftermath of the attack, according to reports. View Source2: US military looks for west Africa ‘Plan B’ OUT OF NIGER: The US joint chiefs of staff chairman is in Botswana for a gathering of African chiefs of defense as Washington seeks to rebuild its presence in the continent Reuters, GABORONE The top US general is making a rare trip to Africa to discuss ways to preserve some of the US presence in West Africa after Niger decided to kick out the US military in favor of partnering with Russia in a major setback for Washington.US Air Force General C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters before landing in Botswana yesterday for a gathering of African chiefs of defense that he was going to speak with several partners in the region.“I do see some opportunities. And there’s countries that we’re already working with in West Africa,” Brown told reporters traveling with him. US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Air Force General C.Q. Brown speaks at the 156th National Memorial Day Observance in the Memorial Amphitheater at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia, on May 27. Photo: AP Building on those relationships may “provide opportunities for us to posture some of the capability we had in Niger in some other locations,” he added.Brown declined to say which countries were under consideration. However, a US official told Reuters that US President Joe Biden’s administration has had initial conversations with countries including Benin, Ivory Coast and Ghana. Still, the US military is not expected to be able to replicate its muscular counterterrorism footprint in Niger any time soon. In particular, its ejection means losing Air Base 201, which the US built near Agadez in central Niger at a cost of more than US$100 million.Until Niger’s military coup last year, the base had been key to the US and Niger’s shared fight against insurgents who have killed thousands of people and displaced millions more.A second US official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said not to expect another big US base or wholesale relocation of US troops from Niger to somewhere else.“We do not expect a large military construction announcement or a significant new base to appear anywhere,” the second official said.The changing political landscape in west and central Africa presents a dilemma for the US. The region has seen eight coups over four years, including in Niger and its neighbors Burkina Faso and Mali.The juntas now ruling many of those countries are less willing to work with Western countries, including the US — whose military is legally barred from supporting governments that seized power through coup. They are increasingly looking to Russia, which faces no such constraints.“The US had solid partners in the region,” said Catherine Nzuki at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.“And now that the US has been pushed out of Niger, the political question that I think the Department of State is asking, the Department of Defense is asking, is: Are we losing allies in the region? Are things changing too rapidly for us to keep up?” she said.The second US official acknowledged that the US military was taking stock of the rapid changes.“We are doing some introspection right now and thinking about what our modified goals should be,” the official said.The extent to which the US’ modified goals will allow it to address the threat from Islamist groups expanding across the arid, impoverished Sahel region remains unclear.“The terrorist threat is alarming,” the second official said.So far, the US withdrawal from Niger is being completed on schedule ahead of a Sept. 15 deadline, US officials say, with only about 600 troops remaining at Air Base 101, which is next to Diori Hamani International Airport in the capital, Niamey.As the US exits, Russia has deployed a number of military forces to the same base, where they are carrying out training activities. US officials say US and Russian troops have no contact with each other.Brown held out hope that even after the US withdraws there might be a way to maintain some kind of future security relationship with Niger, given the years-long investment in military ties.“We have an embassy there, so we still have relationships. And so I don’t know if the door is completely closed,” Brown said. “And so if in the future, if the opportunity presents itself to rebuilt, re-strengthen the relationship, we’ll work with the rest of the USG [US government] to figure out how best to do that.” Comments will be moderated. Keep comments relevant to the article. Remarks containing abusive and obscene language, personal attacks of any kind or promotion will be removed and the user banned. Final decision will be at the discretion of the Taipei Times. Most Popular 1Chinese sub sighting sparks debate 2Taiwan records 77 PLA aircraft over 48 hours 3Passengers arrive safely after scare on flight from SK 4TSMC plant halted over possible archeological find 5PRC uses religion to influence elections View Source3: These goals also have consequences in Europe, said Heinemann-Grüder. "The Russians use their power to exploit the chaos unfolding in various African countries — not just in Sudan. They also support other putschists, as in Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso and Niger. There, this cooperation with putschists does not lead to a stabilization but, on the contrary, to an escalation of the domestic conflicts," he said. View Source4: The two attacks came about a week after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Burkina Faso and announced plans to send more military instructors to the country. View Source5: Russian military personnel arrived in Niamey to train their soldiers and set up an air defense system. Russia has been trying to build stronger ties with several African nations currently ruled by military juntas. View Source6: More Russian mercenaries were recently flown from Mali to "protect" the Burkinabè leader in the aftermath of the attack, according to reports. View Source7: The two attacks came about a week after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Burkina Faso and announced plans to send more military instructors to the country. View Source8: Russian military personnel arrived in Niamey to train their soldiers and set up an air defense system. Russia has been trying to build stronger ties with several African nations currently ruled by military juntas. View Source9: US military looks for west Africa ‘Plan B’ OUT OF NIGER: The US joint chiefs of staff chairman is in Botswana for a gathering of African chiefs of defense as Washington seeks to rebuild its presence in the continent Reuters, GABORONE The top US general is making a rare trip to Africa to discuss ways to preserve some of the US presence in West Africa after Niger decided to kick out the US military in favor of partnering with Russia in a major setback for Washington.US Air Force General C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters before landing in Botswana yesterday for a gathering of African chiefs of defense that he was going to speak with several partners in the region.“I do see some opportunities. And there’s countries that we’re already working with in West Africa,” Brown told reporters traveling with him. US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Air Force General C.Q. Brown speaks at the 156th National Memorial Day Observance in the Memorial Amphitheater at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia, on May 27. Photo: AP Building on those relationships may “provide opportunities for us to posture some of the capability we had in Niger in some other locations,” he added.Brown declined to say which countries were under consideration. However, a US official told Reuters that US President Joe Biden’s administration has had initial conversations with countries including Benin, Ivory Coast and Ghana. Still, the US military is not expected to be able to replicate its muscular counterterrorism footprint in Niger any time soon. In particular, its ejection means losing Air Base 201, which the US built near Agadez in central Niger at a cost of more than US$100 million.Until Niger’s military coup last year, the base had been key to the US and Niger’s shared fight against insurgents who have killed thousands of people and displaced millions more.A second US official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said not to expect another big US base or wholesale relocation of US troops from Niger to somewhere else.“We do not expect a large military construction announcement or a significant new base to appear anywhere,” the second official said.The changing political landscape in west and central Africa presents a dilemma for the US. The region has seen eight coups over four years, including in Niger and its neighbors Burkina Faso and Mali.The juntas now ruling many of those countries are less willing to work with Western countries, including the US — whose military is legally barred from supporting governments that seized power through coup. They are increasingly looking to Russia, which faces no such constraints.“The US had solid partners in the region,” said Catherine Nzuki at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.“And now that the US has been pushed out of Niger, the political question that I think the Department of State is asking, the Department of Defense is asking, is: Are we losing allies in the region? Are things changing too rapidly for us to keep up?” she said.The second US official acknowledged that the US military was taking stock of the rapid changes.“We are doing some introspection right now and thinking about what our modified goals should be,” the official said.The extent to which the US’ modified goals will allow it to address the threat from Islamist groups expanding across the arid, impoverished Sahel region remains unclear.“The terrorist threat is alarming,” the second official said.So far, the US withdrawal from Niger is being completed on schedule ahead of a Sept. 15 deadline, US officials say, with only about 600 troops remaining at Air Base 101, which is next to Diori Hamani International Airport in the capital, Niamey.As the US exits, Russia has deployed a number of military forces to the same base, where they are carrying out training activities. US officials say US and Russian troops have no contact with each other.Brown held out hope that even after the US withdraws there might be a way to maintain some kind of future security relationship with Niger, given the years-long investment in military ties.“We have an embassy there, so we still have relationships. And so I don’t know if the door is completely closed,” Brown said. “And so if in the future, if the opportunity presents itself to rebuilt, re-strengthen the relationship, we’ll work with the rest of the USG [US government] to figure out how best to do that.” Comments will be moderated. Keep comments relevant to the article. Remarks containing abusive and obscene language, personal attacks of any kind or promotion will be removed and the user banned. Final decision will be at the discretion of the Taipei Times. Most Popular 1Chinese sub sighting sparks debate 2Taiwan records 77 PLA aircraft over 48 hours 3Passengers arrive safely after scare on flight from SK 4TSMC plant halted over possible archeological find 5PRC uses religion to influence elections View Source10: These goals also have consequences in Europe, said Heinemann-Grüder. "The Russians use their power to exploit the chaos unfolding in various African countries — not just in Sudan. They also support other putschists, as in Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso and Niger. There, this cooperation with putschists does not lead to a stabilization but, on the contrary, to an escalation of the domestic conflicts," he said. View Source