Geopolitics in Africa: Analysis for Niger (June '24)

Risk Score: 5
Niger is showing significant preference for aligning with Russia, evidenced by multiple strategic actions that indicate a shift away from traditional Western alliances. This includes severed defense and diplomatic ties with France and the expulsion of US military forces1. In addition, Niger has welcomed Russian military personnel for training and defense setup, alongside Russian deployment to former US bases, signifying increased Russian involvement2 3.

Niger's military, political, and economic activities post-2023 coup indicate a stark shift toward aligning with Russia. The country's new military leaders have drastically altered policy, severing defense and diplomatic ties with France and expelling US military personnel in favor of establishing stronger relationships with Russia[f64187; f244619]Niger's military, political, and economic activities post-2023 coup indicate a stark shift toward aligning with Russia. The country's new military leaders have drastically altered policy, severing defense and diplomatic ties with France and expelling US military personnel in favor of establishing stronger relationships with Russia[f64187; f244619]. Russian military personnel have since arrived in Niamey to train Nigerien soldiers and set up an air defense system4. Additionally, Russian forces have relocated to bases previously used by US troops, further solidifying Russia's presence in Niger[f249656; f249748]. Additionally, Russian forces have relocated to bases previously used by US troops, further solidifying Russia's presence in Niger[f249656; f249748].

This pivot towards Russia has created challenges for the US, which is now looking to preserve its presence in West Africa by exploring alternative locations for its military, including Benin, Ivory Coast, and Ghana5. However, the political landscape in the region, riddled with frequent coups, shows an increasing unwillingness among local juntas to cooperate with Western countries like the US and instead lean towards Russia6. This realignment complicates the US's ability to maintain its counterterrorism footprint and diplomatic influence in the region, presenting a significant shift in the balance of power and influence towards Russia.

4: Russian military personnel arrived in Niamey to train their soldiers and set up an air defense system. Russia has been trying to build stronger ties with several African nations currently ruled by military juntas. View Source5: US military looks for west Africa ‘Plan B’ OUT OF NIGER: The US joint chiefs of staff chairman is in Botswana for a gathering of African chiefs of defense as Washington seeks to rebuild its presence in the continent Reuters, GABORONE The top US general is making a rare trip to Africa to discuss ways to preserve some of the US presence in West Africa after Niger decided to kick out the US military in favor of partnering with Russia in a major setback for Washington.US Air Force General C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters before landing in Botswana yesterday for a gathering of African chiefs of defense that he was going to speak with several partners in the region.“I do see some opportunities. And there’s countries that we’re already working with in West Africa,” Brown told reporters traveling with him. US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Air Force General C.Q. Brown speaks at the 156th National Memorial Day Observance in the Memorial Amphitheater at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia, on May 27. Photo: AP Building on those relationships may “provide opportunities for us to posture some of the capability we had in Niger in some other locations,” he added.Brown declined to say which countries were under consideration. However, a US official told Reuters that US President Joe Biden’s administration has had initial conversations with countries including Benin, Ivory Coast and Ghana. Still, the US military is not expected to be able to replicate its muscular counterterrorism footprint in Niger any time soon. In particular, its ejection means losing Air Base 201, which the US built near Agadez in central Niger at a cost of more than US$100 million.Until Niger’s military coup last year, the base had been key to the US and Niger’s shared fight against insurgents who have killed thousands of people and displaced millions more.A second US official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said not to expect another big US base or wholesale relocation of US troops from Niger to somewhere else.“We do not expect a large military construction announcement or a significant new base to appear anywhere,” the second official said.The changing political landscape in west and central Africa presents a dilemma for the US. The region has seen eight coups over four years, including in Niger and its neighbors Burkina Faso and Mali.The juntas now ruling many of those countries are less willing to work with Western countries, including the US — whose military is legally barred from supporting governments that seized power through coup. They are increasingly looking to Russia, which faces no such constraints.“The US had solid partners in the region,” said Catherine Nzuki at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.“And now that the US has been pushed out of Niger, the political question that I think the Department of State is asking, the Department of Defense is asking, is: Are we losing allies in the region? Are things changing too rapidly for us to keep up?” she said.The second US official acknowledged that the US military was taking stock of the rapid changes.“We are doing some introspection right now and thinking about what our modified goals should be,” the official said.The extent to which the US’ modified goals will allow it to address the threat from Islamist groups expanding across the arid, impoverished Sahel region remains unclear.“The terrorist threat is alarming,” the second official said.So far, the US withdrawal from Niger is being completed on schedule ahead of a Sept. 15 deadline, US officials say, with only about 600 troops remaining at Air Base 101, which is next to Diori Hamani International Airport in the capital, Niamey.As the US exits, Russia has deployed a number of military forces to the same base, where they are carrying out training activities. US officials say US and Russian troops have no contact with each other.Brown held out hope that even after the US withdraws there might be a way to maintain some kind of future security relationship with Niger, given the years-long investment in military ties.“We have an embassy there, so we still have relationships. And so I don’t know if the door is completely closed,” Brown said. “And so if in the future, if the opportunity presents itself to rebuilt, re-strengthen the relationship, we’ll work with the rest of the USG [US government] to figure out how best to do that.” Comments will be moderated. Keep comments relevant to the article. Remarks containing abusive and obscene language, personal attacks of any kind or promotion will be removed and the user banned. Final decision will be at the discretion of the Taipei Times. Most Popular 1Chinese sub sighting sparks debate 2Taiwan records 77 PLA aircraft over 48 hours 3Passengers arrive safely after scare on flight from SK 4TSMC plant halted over possible archeological find 5PRC uses religion to influence elections View Source6: US military looks for west Africa ‘Plan B’ OUT OF NIGER: The US joint chiefs of staff chairman is in Botswana for a gathering of African chiefs of defense as Washington seeks to rebuild its presence in the continent Reuters, GABORONE The top US general is making a rare trip to Africa to discuss ways to preserve some of the US presence in West Africa after Niger decided to kick out the US military in favor of partnering with Russia in a major setback for Washington.US Air Force General C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters before landing in Botswana yesterday for a gathering of African chiefs of defense that he was going to speak with several partners in the region.“I do see some opportunities. And there’s countries that we’re already working with in West Africa,” Brown told reporters traveling with him. US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Air Force General C.Q. Brown speaks at the 156th National Memorial Day Observance in the Memorial Amphitheater at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia, on May 27. Photo: AP Building on those relationships may “provide opportunities for us to posture some of the capability we had in Niger in some other locations,” he added.Brown declined to say which countries were under consideration. However, a US official told Reuters that US President Joe Biden’s administration has had initial conversations with countries including Benin, Ivory Coast and Ghana. Still, the US military is not expected to be able to replicate its muscular counterterrorism footprint in Niger any time soon. In particular, its ejection means losing Air Base 201, which the US built near Agadez in central Niger at a cost of more than US$100 million.Until Niger’s military coup last year, the base had been key to the US and Niger’s shared fight against insurgents who have killed thousands of people and displaced millions more.A second US official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said not to expect another big US base or wholesale relocation of US troops from Niger to somewhere else.“We do not expect a large military construction announcement or a significant new base to appear anywhere,” the second official said.The changing political landscape in west and central Africa presents a dilemma for the US. The region has seen eight coups over four years, including in Niger and its neighbors Burkina Faso and Mali.The juntas now ruling many of those countries are less willing to work with Western countries, including the US — whose military is legally barred from supporting governments that seized power through coup. They are increasingly looking to Russia, which faces no such constraints.“The US had solid partners in the region,” said Catherine Nzuki at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.“And now that the US has been pushed out of Niger, the political question that I think the Department of State is asking, the Department of Defense is asking, is: Are we losing allies in the region? Are things changing too rapidly for us to keep up?” she said.The second US official acknowledged that the US military was taking stock of the rapid changes.“We are doing some introspection right now and thinking about what our modified goals should be,” the official said.The extent to which the US’ modified goals will allow it to address the threat from Islamist groups expanding across the arid, impoverished Sahel region remains unclear.“The terrorist threat is alarming,” the second official said.So far, the US withdrawal from Niger is being completed on schedule ahead of a Sept. 15 deadline, US officials say, with only about 600 troops remaining at Air Base 101, which is next to Diori Hamani International Airport in the capital, Niamey.As the US exits, Russia has deployed a number of military forces to the same base, where they are carrying out training activities. US officials say US and Russian troops have no contact with each other.Brown held out hope that even after the US withdraws there might be a way to maintain some kind of future security relationship with Niger, given the years-long investment in military ties.“We have an embassy there, so we still have relationships. And so I don’t know if the door is completely closed,” Brown said. “And so if in the future, if the opportunity presents itself to rebuilt, re-strengthen the relationship, we’ll work with the rest of the USG [US government] to figure out how best to do that.” Comments will be moderated. Keep comments relevant to the article. Remarks containing abusive and obscene language, personal attacks of any kind or promotion will be removed and the user banned. Final decision will be at the discretion of the Taipei Times. Most Popular 1Chinese sub sighting sparks debate 2Taiwan records 77 PLA aircraft over 48 hours 3Passengers arrive safely after scare on flight from SK 4TSMC plant halted over possible archeological find 5PRC uses religion to influence elections View Source

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Photograph: Abubaker Lubowa/Reuters View Source3: Ugandan environmental activists protesting in Kampala in 2022 against construction of the controversial $5bn east African crude oil pipeline (EACOP). Photograph: Abubaker Lubowa/Reuters View Source4: Russian military personnel arrived in Niamey to train their soldiers and set up an air defense system. Russia has been trying to build stronger ties with several African nations currently ruled by military juntas. View Source5: US military looks for west Africa ‘Plan B’ OUT OF NIGER: The US joint chiefs of staff chairman is in Botswana for a gathering of African chiefs of defense as Washington seeks to rebuild its presence in the continent Reuters, GABORONE The top US general is making a rare trip to Africa to discuss ways to preserve some of the US presence in West Africa after Niger decided to kick out the US military in favor of partnering with Russia in a major setback for Washington.US Air Force General C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters before landing in Botswana yesterday for a gathering of African chiefs of defense that he was going to speak with several partners in the region.“I do see some opportunities. And there’s countries that we’re already working with in West Africa,” Brown told reporters traveling with him. US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Air Force General C.Q. Brown speaks at the 156th National Memorial Day Observance in the Memorial Amphitheater at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia, on May 27. Photo: AP Building on those relationships may “provide opportunities for us to posture some of the capability we had in Niger in some other locations,” he added.Brown declined to say which countries were under consideration. However, a US official told Reuters that US President Joe Biden’s administration has had initial conversations with countries including Benin, Ivory Coast and Ghana. Still, the US military is not expected to be able to replicate its muscular counterterrorism footprint in Niger any time soon. In particular, its ejection means losing Air Base 201, which the US built near Agadez in central Niger at a cost of more than US$100 million.Until Niger’s military coup last year, the base had been key to the US and Niger’s shared fight against insurgents who have killed thousands of people and displaced millions more.A second US official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said not to expect another big US base or wholesale relocation of US troops from Niger to somewhere else.“We do not expect a large military construction announcement or a significant new base to appear anywhere,” the second official said.The changing political landscape in west and central Africa presents a dilemma for the US. The region has seen eight coups over four years, including in Niger and its neighbors Burkina Faso and Mali.The juntas now ruling many of those countries are less willing to work with Western countries, including the US — whose military is legally barred from supporting governments that seized power through coup. They are increasingly looking to Russia, which faces no such constraints.“The US had solid partners in the region,” said Catherine Nzuki at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.“And now that the US has been pushed out of Niger, the political question that I think the Department of State is asking, the Department of Defense is asking, is: Are we losing allies in the region? Are things changing too rapidly for us to keep up?” she said.The second US official acknowledged that the US military was taking stock of the rapid changes.“We are doing some introspection right now and thinking about what our modified goals should be,” the official said.The extent to which the US’ modified goals will allow it to address the threat from Islamist groups expanding across the arid, impoverished Sahel region remains unclear.“The terrorist threat is alarming,” the second official said.So far, the US withdrawal from Niger is being completed on schedule ahead of a Sept. 15 deadline, US officials say, with only about 600 troops remaining at Air Base 101, which is next to Diori Hamani International Airport in the capital, Niamey.As the US exits, Russia has deployed a number of military forces to the same base, where they are carrying out training activities. US officials say US and Russian troops have no contact with each other.Brown held out hope that even after the US withdraws there might be a way to maintain some kind of future security relationship with Niger, given the years-long investment in military ties.“We have an embassy there, so we still have relationships. And so I don’t know if the door is completely closed,” Brown said. “And so if in the future, if the opportunity presents itself to rebuilt, re-strengthen the relationship, we’ll work with the rest of the USG [US government] to figure out how best to do that.” Comments will be moderated. Keep comments relevant to the article. Remarks containing abusive and obscene language, personal attacks of any kind or promotion will be removed and the user banned. Final decision will be at the discretion of the Taipei Times. Most Popular 1Chinese sub sighting sparks debate 2Taiwan records 77 PLA aircraft over 48 hours 3Passengers arrive safely after scare on flight from SK 4TSMC plant halted over possible archeological find 5PRC uses religion to influence elections View Source6: US military looks for west Africa ‘Plan B’ OUT OF NIGER: The US joint chiefs of staff chairman is in Botswana for a gathering of African chiefs of defense as Washington seeks to rebuild its presence in the continent Reuters, GABORONE The top US general is making a rare trip to Africa to discuss ways to preserve some of the US presence in West Africa after Niger decided to kick out the US military in favor of partnering with Russia in a major setback for Washington.US Air Force General C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters before landing in Botswana yesterday for a gathering of African chiefs of defense that he was going to speak with several partners in the region.“I do see some opportunities. And there’s countries that we’re already working with in West Africa,” Brown told reporters traveling with him. US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Air Force General C.Q. Brown speaks at the 156th National Memorial Day Observance in the Memorial Amphitheater at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia, on May 27. Photo: AP Building on those relationships may “provide opportunities for us to posture some of the capability we had in Niger in some other locations,” he added.Brown declined to say which countries were under consideration. However, a US official told Reuters that US President Joe Biden’s administration has had initial conversations with countries including Benin, Ivory Coast and Ghana. Still, the US military is not expected to be able to replicate its muscular counterterrorism footprint in Niger any time soon. In particular, its ejection means losing Air Base 201, which the US built near Agadez in central Niger at a cost of more than US$100 million.Until Niger’s military coup last year, the base had been key to the US and Niger’s shared fight against insurgents who have killed thousands of people and displaced millions more.A second US official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said not to expect another big US base or wholesale relocation of US troops from Niger to somewhere else.“We do not expect a large military construction announcement or a significant new base to appear anywhere,” the second official said.The changing political landscape in west and central Africa presents a dilemma for the US. The region has seen eight coups over four years, including in Niger and its neighbors Burkina Faso and Mali.The juntas now ruling many of those countries are less willing to work with Western countries, including the US — whose military is legally barred from supporting governments that seized power through coup. They are increasingly looking to Russia, which faces no such constraints.“The US had solid partners in the region,” said Catherine Nzuki at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.“And now that the US has been pushed out of Niger, the political question that I think the Department of State is asking, the Department of Defense is asking, is: Are we losing allies in the region? Are things changing too rapidly for us to keep up?” she said.The second US official acknowledged that the US military was taking stock of the rapid changes.“We are doing some introspection right now and thinking about what our modified goals should be,” the official said.The extent to which the US’ modified goals will allow it to address the threat from Islamist groups expanding across the arid, impoverished Sahel region remains unclear.“The terrorist threat is alarming,” the second official said.So far, the US withdrawal from Niger is being completed on schedule ahead of a Sept. 15 deadline, US officials say, with only about 600 troops remaining at Air Base 101, which is next to Diori Hamani International Airport in the capital, Niamey.As the US exits, Russia has deployed a number of military forces to the same base, where they are carrying out training activities. US officials say US and Russian troops have no contact with each other.Brown held out hope that even after the US withdraws there might be a way to maintain some kind of future security relationship with Niger, given the years-long investment in military ties.“We have an embassy there, so we still have relationships. And so I don’t know if the door is completely closed,” Brown said. “And so if in the future, if the opportunity presents itself to rebuilt, re-strengthen the relationship, we’ll work with the rest of the USG [US government] to figure out how best to do that.” Comments will be moderated. Keep comments relevant to the article. Remarks containing abusive and obscene language, personal attacks of any kind or promotion will be removed and the user banned. Final decision will be at the discretion of the Taipei Times. Most Popular 1Chinese sub sighting sparks debate 2Taiwan records 77 PLA aircraft over 48 hours 3Passengers arrive safely after scare on flight from SK 4TSMC plant halted over possible archeological find 5PRC uses religion to influence elections View Source