Geopolitics in Africa: Analysis for Nigeria (June '24)

Risk Score: 1
The visit from FBI director Christopher Wray to Nigeria to discuss threats from ISIS, al-Qaida, and al-Shabab demonstrates strong cooperation with the US on security matters5. The Russian Embassy's denial of coercing Nigerian students to fight in Ukraine and the Nigerian Foreign Ministry's debunking of these claims indicate a neutral relationship with Russia rather than any alignment6 7 8.

5: The comments came as FBI director Christopher Wray made a rare trip to Africa this week, visiting Nigeria and Kenya to discuss the threat of ISIS, al-Qaida, and al-Shabab in the region, all of which consider Africa “very fertile ground.” View Source6: The Russian Embassy in Nigeria has denied reports claiming Nigerian students based in Russia are being coerced into signing up for the military to help Moscow in its invasion of Ukraine, Nigerian media reported on Wednesday. View Source7: On Wednesday, the Embassy of the Russian Federation in Nigeria released a statement, saying it was "bewildered" by the publication of the claims by Nigerian news outlets. View Source8: The embassy thanked the Nigerian Foreign Ministry for "debunking the fake news aimed at undermining the friendship and cooperation between Russia and Nigeria." View Source

Nigeria has adopted a multi-faceted approach in its military, political, and economic activities, balancing relations between Russian and American interests. The country has demonstrated strong cooperation with the United States in security matters. This is evidenced by the recent visit from FBI director Christopher Wray to discuss threats from ISIS, al-Qaida, and al-Shabab, indicating a positive relationship and cooperation with the US on critical security issues9.

Economically, Nigeria faces significant challenges that include a national insecurity crisis, oil theft, and structural weaknesses, which have undermined the effectiveness of inflation control measures and have adversely impacted manufacturing sales efforts10. President Bola Tinubu's economic reforms have not prevented multinational companies like Procter & Gamble and GSK from exiting Nigeria due to falling profit margins and infrastructure issues11. Despite these hurdles, Nigeria continues to be involved in discussions of crude oil export and regional trade, although tensions and diplomatic disputes, such as those with Benin, have complicated such efforts12 13.

Politically, Russia has denied coercing Nigerian students to fight in Ukraine and thanked Nigeria for rebuffing such claims, suggesting a neutral stance rather than preference towards Russia14 15 16. However, multiple security challenges, such as the presence of homegrown extremists and the influence of jihadi groups in northwestern Nigeria, present opportunities for both US and Russian intervention17 18. As of now, Nigeria maintains a slightly more favorable alignment towards the US, illustrated by ongoing security collaboration yet not definitively distancing itself from potential Russian influence. Consequently, the risk score for Nigeria remains at "2," reflecting a slight inclination towards the USA.

9: The comments came as FBI director Christopher Wray made a rare trip to Africa this week, visiting Nigeria and Kenya to discuss the threat of ISIS, al-Qaida, and al-Shabab in the region, all of which consider Africa “very fertile ground.” View Source10: Nigeria’s attempts at stability have included interest rate hikes and weekly dollar sales to licensed vendors. But the inflation trajectory over the past year suggests that manufacturer’s sales efforts will continue to be undermined by the economy’s structural weaknesses — from a national insecurity crisis that hinders productive agriculture, to oil theft that constrains sufficient dollar earnings. View Source11: Nigerian President Bola Tinubu pushed an economic reform agenda, but those measures did not stop multinationals Procter & Gamble, GSK, and several other large companies from exiting the country amid falling profit margins and myriad supply chain and infrastructure issues: “What Nigeria must offer is not just opportunities, but fewer headaches,” the former Africa editor of the Financial Times told Bloomberg. View Source12: The diplomatic tensions with Benin date back to July when Niger’s president, Mohamed Bazoum, was deposed in a coup, resulting in West African neighbors closing their borders with Niger, and in the formation of the so-called local liberation group now threatening more attacks on the oil project. View Source13: All three countries involved — Niger, Benin and China — attach great importance to the crude oil business. In April, representatives of all three countries celebrated the completion of the pipeline as a "forward-looking project." The pipeline stands for a future of prosperity and more independence from traditional partners, such as France and Western Europe, it was said. View Source14: The Russian Embassy in Nigeria has denied reports claiming Nigerian students based in Russia are being coerced into signing up for the military to help Moscow in its invasion of Ukraine, Nigerian media reported on Wednesday. View Source15: On Wednesday, the Embassy of the Russian Federation in Nigeria released a statement, saying it was "bewildered" by the publication of the claims by Nigerian news outlets. View Source16: On Tuesday, the Nigerian government also responded to the media reports, also denying that Nigerian students based in Russia were being coerced into signing up for the Kremlin's mission in Ukraine. View Source17: The security situation at the 5,300-square kilometer (2,000-square mile) park in Niger state and along the nearby border with Benin is “getting out of hand” and is “a much more explosive situation than we had anticipated,” said Kars de Bruijne, one of the authors of the report and a senior research fellow at the institute. View Source18: In northwest Nigeria, security analysts have in the past warned that the region’s remote territories, where the government is largely absent but have rich mineral resources and high poverty levels, present an opportunity for expansion for jihadi groups that had operated mainly in the Sahel, as well as the Islamic State group, whose fighters hold sway in the Lake Chad basin. View Source

Sources

1: The comments came as FBI director Christopher Wray made a rare trip to Africa this week, visiting Nigeria and Kenya to discuss the threat of ISIS, al-Qaida, and al-Shabab in the region, all of which consider Africa “very fertile ground.” View Source2: The Russian Embassy in Nigeria has denied reports claiming Nigerian students based in Russia are being coerced into signing up for the military to help Moscow in its invasion of Ukraine, Nigerian media reported on Wednesday. View Source3: On Wednesday, the Embassy of the Russian Federation in Nigeria released a statement, saying it was "bewildered" by the publication of the claims by Nigerian news outlets. View Source4: The embassy thanked the Nigerian Foreign Ministry for "debunking the fake news aimed at undermining the friendship and cooperation between Russia and Nigeria." View Source5: The comments came as FBI director Christopher Wray made a rare trip to Africa this week, visiting Nigeria and Kenya to discuss the threat of ISIS, al-Qaida, and al-Shabab in the region, all of which consider Africa “very fertile ground.” View Source6: The Russian Embassy in Nigeria has denied reports claiming Nigerian students based in Russia are being coerced into signing up for the military to help Moscow in its invasion of Ukraine, Nigerian media reported on Wednesday. View Source7: On Wednesday, the Embassy of the Russian Federation in Nigeria released a statement, saying it was "bewildered" by the publication of the claims by Nigerian news outlets. View Source8: The embassy thanked the Nigerian Foreign Ministry for "debunking the fake news aimed at undermining the friendship and cooperation between Russia and Nigeria." View Source9: The comments came as FBI director Christopher Wray made a rare trip to Africa this week, visiting Nigeria and Kenya to discuss the threat of ISIS, al-Qaida, and al-Shabab in the region, all of which consider Africa “very fertile ground.” View Source10: Nigeria’s attempts at stability have included interest rate hikes and weekly dollar sales to licensed vendors. But the inflation trajectory over the past year suggests that manufacturer’s sales efforts will continue to be undermined by the economy’s structural weaknesses — from a national insecurity crisis that hinders productive agriculture, to oil theft that constrains sufficient dollar earnings. View Source11: Nigerian President Bola Tinubu pushed an economic reform agenda, but those measures did not stop multinationals Procter & Gamble, GSK, and several other large companies from exiting the country amid falling profit margins and myriad supply chain and infrastructure issues: “What Nigeria must offer is not just opportunities, but fewer headaches,” the former Africa editor of the Financial Times told Bloomberg. View Source12: The diplomatic tensions with Benin date back to July when Niger’s president, Mohamed Bazoum, was deposed in a coup, resulting in West African neighbors closing their borders with Niger, and in the formation of the so-called local liberation group now threatening more attacks on the oil project. View Source13: All three countries involved — Niger, Benin and China — attach great importance to the crude oil business. In April, representatives of all three countries celebrated the completion of the pipeline as a "forward-looking project." The pipeline stands for a future of prosperity and more independence from traditional partners, such as France and Western Europe, it was said. View Source14: The Russian Embassy in Nigeria has denied reports claiming Nigerian students based in Russia are being coerced into signing up for the military to help Moscow in its invasion of Ukraine, Nigerian media reported on Wednesday. View Source15: On Wednesday, the Embassy of the Russian Federation in Nigeria released a statement, saying it was "bewildered" by the publication of the claims by Nigerian news outlets. View Source16: On Tuesday, the Nigerian government also responded to the media reports, also denying that Nigerian students based in Russia were being coerced into signing up for the Kremlin's mission in Ukraine. View Source17: The security situation at the 5,300-square kilometer (2,000-square mile) park in Niger state and along the nearby border with Benin is “getting out of hand” and is “a much more explosive situation than we had anticipated,” said Kars de Bruijne, one of the authors of the report and a senior research fellow at the institute. View Source18: In northwest Nigeria, security analysts have in the past warned that the region’s remote territories, where the government is largely absent but have rich mineral resources and high poverty levels, present an opportunity for expansion for jihadi groups that had operated mainly in the Sahel, as well as the Islamic State group, whose fighters hold sway in the Lake Chad basin. View Source