Geopolitics in Africa: Analysis for Sudan (June '24)

Risk Score: 5
Sudan is showing significant preference for aligning with Russia, evidenced by the multiple agreements and support exchanges between Sudan and Russia. These include the construction of a Russian navy base1, multiple strategic military and economic agreements2, and the presence of Russian military support in Sudan3. Additionally, Russia's influence is further demonstrated by Sudan allowing a Russian navy base near Port Sudan4 and finalizing a port agreement5.

Russia's military, political, and economic activities in Sudan have significantly strengthened their alignment with Sudan's current government. Sudan and Russia have established multiple strategic agreements over the years, including the 2017 deal between Sudan's then-president Omar al-Bashir and Russian President Vladimir Putin for constructing a Russian base6. More recently, in late May 2023, the Sudanese assistant commander-in-chief Yasser al-Atta announced that further military and economic agreements would be signed with Russia7. These developments culminate in Sudan approving the establishment of a Russian navy base near Port Sudan, which solidifies Russia's military footprint in Africa8. Furthermore, Russian support to Sudan's Armed Forces (SAF) includes military aid in exchange for naval privileges, exhibiting deep-rooted military cooperation9.

In contrast, American influence in Sudan appears comparatively muted. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's efforts to curtail Russia's strategic maneuvers in Sudan have largely been ineffective10. Despite diplomatic pushes for ceasefire talks and appeals against foreign weapon supplies to Sudan, the US has not prioritized Sudan in its foreign policy agenda, focusing more on regions like the Middle East and Ukraine11. Sudan's current significant alignment towards Russia is reinforced by ongoing collaborations and mutual agreements on military and economic fronts, positioning Russia as a more influential actor in the region compared to the US.

6: Sudan and Russia have been discussing such an agreement for years. According to the online magazine Understanding War, as far back as 2017, Sudan's then-president Omar al-Bashir, and Russian President Vladimir Putin reached a deal on the construction of a Russian base with room for several hundred soldiers and four ships. View Source7: In late May, the assistant commander-in-chief of the Sudanese army (SAF) Yasser al-Atta announced that Sudan and Russia would sign a number of military and economic agreements in the coming weeks. View Source8: Sudan and Russia have reportedly agreed to establish a Russian navy base near Port Sudan. The West does not appear to have a reponse to this move, which will bolster Moscow's military presence on the African continent. View Source9: In exchange for being allowed to maintain a navy presence in Sudan, it appears Russia has pledged to provide military support to the SAF. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov promised the SAF "unrestricted qualitative military aid," according to the Institute for the Study of War. View Source10: The top US military commander in Africa told lawmakers in 2021 that a Russian naval base on the Red Sea was a key strategic concern with the potential to destabilize US interests across the continent. Even so, former US officials have said the country’s Sudan policy has largely failed to discourage Russia. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s last-ditch efforts to stop Russia from building closer ties with Sudan “only showed how out of touch we are,” a former State Department analyst told Middle East Eye. If US-aligned countries were “stepping up to help [Sudan’s Armed Forces], then we wouldn’t be talking about Russia now,” he added. View Source11: Sudan has been low on the US’ list of priorities, experts say; ceasefire talks between the country’s two warring sides have not been led by top US officials, and efforts to appoint a presidential envoy on Sudan who reports directly to the White House fell short. Instead, the US appointed a special envoy who reports to an assistant secretary of state. The envoy recently spoke to an almost empty room during a US congressional hearing, Foreign Policy noted. “We are defining the soul of our nation, as Americans, by how we are allowing, frankly, such a nightmarish scenario to go undiscussed and unfocused,” Sen. Cory Booker said last week. View Source

Sources

1: Sudan and Russia have been discussing such an agreement for years. According to the online magazine Understanding War, as far back as 2017, Sudan's then-president Omar al-Bashir, and Russian President Vladimir Putin reached a deal on the construction of a Russian base with room for several hundred soldiers and four ships. View Source2: In late May, the assistant commander-in-chief of the Sudanese army (SAF) Yasser al-Atta announced that Sudan and Russia would sign a number of military and economic agreements in the coming weeks. View Source3: In exchange for being allowed to maintain a navy presence in Sudan, it appears Russia has pledged to provide military support to the SAF. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov promised the SAF "unrestricted qualitative military aid," according to the Institute for the Study of War. View Source4: Sudan and Russia have reportedly agreed to establish a Russian navy base near Port Sudan. The West does not appear to have a reponse to this move, which will bolster Moscow's military presence on the African continent. View Source5: A Sudanese delegation arrived in Russia for talks this week for what Sudanese officials have said is a trip aimed at finalizing an agreement that would grant Russia their first African port. View Source6: Sudan and Russia have been discussing such an agreement for years. According to the online magazine Understanding War, as far back as 2017, Sudan's then-president Omar al-Bashir, and Russian President Vladimir Putin reached a deal on the construction of a Russian base with room for several hundred soldiers and four ships. View Source7: In late May, the assistant commander-in-chief of the Sudanese army (SAF) Yasser al-Atta announced that Sudan and Russia would sign a number of military and economic agreements in the coming weeks. View Source8: Sudan and Russia have reportedly agreed to establish a Russian navy base near Port Sudan. The West does not appear to have a reponse to this move, which will bolster Moscow's military presence on the African continent. View Source9: In exchange for being allowed to maintain a navy presence in Sudan, it appears Russia has pledged to provide military support to the SAF. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov promised the SAF "unrestricted qualitative military aid," according to the Institute for the Study of War. View Source10: The top US military commander in Africa told lawmakers in 2021 that a Russian naval base on the Red Sea was a key strategic concern with the potential to destabilize US interests across the continent. Even so, former US officials have said the country’s Sudan policy has largely failed to discourage Russia. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s last-ditch efforts to stop Russia from building closer ties with Sudan “only showed how out of touch we are,” a former State Department analyst told Middle East Eye. If US-aligned countries were “stepping up to help [Sudan’s Armed Forces], then we wouldn’t be talking about Russia now,” he added. View Source11: Sudan has been low on the US’ list of priorities, experts say; ceasefire talks between the country’s two warring sides have not been led by top US officials, and efforts to appoint a presidential envoy on Sudan who reports directly to the White House fell short. Instead, the US appointed a special envoy who reports to an assistant secretary of state. The envoy recently spoke to an almost empty room during a US congressional hearing, Foreign Policy noted. “We are defining the soul of our nation, as Americans, by how we are allowing, frankly, such a nightmarish scenario to go undiscussed and unfocused,” Sen. Cory Booker said last week. View Source