PREDICTION: 0.66 JUSTIFICATION... Analyzing the newly provided data, several emerging factors suggest a slight increase in the probability that July 2024 will be the hottest July on record. Accordingly, the prediction is adjusted to 0.66 based on the following considerations: - **Continuation of Above-Average Temperatures**: January 2024 was notably warmer than average in many parts of the United States, including experiencing the 10th-warmest January on record in Wisconsin. This continuation of higher-than-average temperatures supports the trend toward warmer global conditions leading up to the summer months. - **Significant Precipitation Events and Their Implications**: The occurrence of significant precipitation events, such as the atmospheric river causing flash flooding in San Diego, California in January 2024, aside from their immediate impacts, also point toward dynamic atmospheric conditions. Such conditions can contribute to variable weather patterns that, combined with prevailing warm temperatures, may enhance the likelihood of extreme heat events. - **Widespread Temperature Anomalies Across the U.S.**: The report highlights areas of the U.S. experiencing unusual warmth, alongside the potential for above-normal monthly average temperatures impacting the northern portions of the U.S. as well as Alaska, as indicated by the Climate Prediction Center's January 31 One-Month Outlook. This geographical spread of warmer conditions underscores a warming trend that may persist into the summer, including July. - **Historical Snowfall and Cold Snap Considerations**: The record snowfalls and cold temperatures observed in specific regions (e.g., Anchorage, Alaska receiving over 100 inches of snow since October, and Nashville getting over six inches of snow in January), while indicative of a cold snap, also suggest an increasingly volatile and extreme weather pattern. The transition from such extremes to potentially record-breaking heat in July seems increasingly plausible as part of broader climate volatility. - **Global Climate Context**: The absence of new contradictory data since the last forecast means global warming trends, such as those leading to the record warmth of January 2024 in several regions, continue unabated. These trends reinforce the probability of coming months, including July, experiencing unprecedented heat. **Updated Probability Forecast**: Considering these factors, particularly the continuity of warmer-than-expected conditions in early 2024 and the dynamic, extreme weather patterns observed, the probability that July 2024 will be the hottest July on record is adjusted **upward to 0.66**. This revised forecast hinges primarily on the recent confirmation of warming trends and extreme weather events, which, despite the absence of direct summer predictions, provide a relevant basis for anticipating continued, if not intensified, warmth into July 2024.