Country Risk Scores for Expropriations

We used our LLM research agents to build a list of 10,000 expropriation events around the world (asset seizures, new laws, diplomatic decisions, etc.). We then scored each country on its risk to Western asset owners. Read More

Fundamental Analysis of 200+ NASDAQ Stocks (product roadmaps, financial risk, and more)

We used our LLM research agents to build an understanding of over 200 NASDAQ-listed companies, with a focus on product roadmaps until 2026 and financial risk associated with those roadmaps. Read More

Error Types in RAG for Research Automation and Fact Verification

Learn about how we define errors when reviewing fact citations in a Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) context. We also discuss user requirements and tradeoffs around costs, errors, and speed. Read More

US Presidential Candidates on Key Policy Issues

We used Emerging Trajectories to track policy perspectives across Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, and Robert Kennedy Jr. This is based on our research agents and the data they've collected in mid-July. Read More

Geopolitics in Africa: Russia and USA in June 2024

See how we use our LLM-powered media monitoring solution to score geopolitical risk in Africa. We specifically focus on recent (i.e., June 2024) influence and military operations by the USA and Russia. Read More

Copper Mining Companies - Risk Framework and Scores

We developed a risk framework across finance, management, mining projects, geopolitics, and potential ROI for copper miners. We then used our LLM research agents to generate scores automatically. Read More

A List of 160+ Data Centers

We've compiled a list of 160+ data centers around the world. As data centers (and their associated energy burdens) become more important, we want to help track announcements, investments, and more. Let us know if you need structured data like this. Read More

Natural Gas Forecast (and Forecasting Template) for September 2024

This post provides a forecast for natural gas (specifically, NG00) prices for September 30, 2024. We use the post to showcase the new forecasting template we will be developing in our product. Read More

March 2024 CPI Forecasts - Postmortem

We ran a CPI forecasting competition between GPT-4, Claude, Llama 2, and Gemini. The results were informative (GPT-4 and Llama 2 did the best!), and help clarify our roadmap. Learn more about the results and how we're improving forecasting, thanks to them. Read More

Emerging Trajectories v0.2.8: News Agents, Crawlers, and RAG

emergingtrajectories v0.2.8 includes major updates! We've added agents that read news, fact extraction and querying via Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG), and new forecating agents. Read More

Research Agents That Cite Sources

We released emergingtrajectories v0.2.4, which includes agents that cite sources. You'll now see which sources are being used to inform and update forecasts. Read More

Our Vision

Learn about our vision for Emerging Trajectories. We describe the goals behind this project, why we believe it's possible, and what we are building towards. Read More

Forecasting CPI (Inflation) for Jan '24

We ran an experiment to rack CPI forecasts for January 2024, starting in mid-January and ending on February 12. The actual results, announced on February 13, were 0.3% monthly growth in inflation, whereas our agent consistently predicted 0.4%. Read More

Tutorial: Creating and Updating Forecasts

Emerging Trajectories v0.2.3 comes with agents and utility functions that make it incredibly easy to create and update forecasts. Learn how to do both by creating your first forecasts. Read More

Oil Price Predictions

An active forecasting agent looking at the oil price (USD per barrel) for the end of the 2024 calendar year. Read More

Product Roadmap for Q1 2024

The Emerging Trajectories product roadmap, mental model, and assumptions. This is what we are working on in Q1 2024! Read More

Forecasting GDP Growth in Q4 2023 (with LLMs)

In this exploration, we use web crawling agents to try and predict the Bureau of Economic Analysis' inflation announcement for Q4 2023. Read More

Forecasting the New Hampshire Republican Primary with LLMs

Our first experiments focused on forecasting the New Hampshire Republican Primary. We provide an overview of our performance and takeaways for future experiments. Read More