Published on June 25, 2024
The visualization and deep dives below are a proof of concept analysis of Russian vs. US activities in the Sahel region in Africa. Each country is scored based on media monitoring conducted from about June 1 to June 24, with scores indicating Russian versus US activity.
The table below shows details around each color-coded country. Click Read to see a deep dive
analysis along
with source materials.
| Country | Deep Dive | Score | Discussion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sudan | Read | 5 | Sudan is showing significant preference for aligning with Russia, evidenced by the multiple agreements and support exchanges between Sudan and Russia. These include the construction of a Russian navy base, multiple strategic military and economic agreements, and the presence of Russian military support in Sudan. Additionally, Russia's influence is further demonstrated by Sudan allowing a Russian navy base near Port Sudan and finalizing a port agreement. |
| Mali | Read | 5 | Mali is showing significant preference for aligning with Russia, as evidenced by multiple data points. Russian mercenaries from Mali have been deployed to Burkina Faso to protect its leader. The withdrawal of French troops has led to an increased preference for Russian partnerships by the Malian junta. Russia supports the putschists in Mali, fueling domestic conflicts rather than stabilizing the situation. Furthermore, Mali is receiving military instructors from Russia, and this is part of Russia's broader strategy to enhance its influence in Africa, particularly among military juntas. |
| Burkina Faso | Read | 5 | Burkina Faso is showing significant preference for aligning with Russia. This is evidenced by the expulsion of French troops, the deepening of military ties with Russia, the introduction of Russian mercenaries, and the announcement of more military instructors from Russia. These developments underscore a significant alignment with Russia. |
| Benin | Read | 3 | While Benin is slightly aligned with the USA by supporting the West African bloc and French troops against Niger's coup and conditioning oil exports on the reopening of borders, the involvement of China as a mediator in the trade dispute and its significant role in Benin's oil project adds complexity to the alignment. The loss of economic earnings due to the impasse also contributes to regional tensions suggesting a moderate stance rather than a strong alignment in either direction. |
| Nigeria | Read | 1 | The visit from FBI director Christopher Wray to Nigeria to discuss threats from ISIS, al-Qaida, and al-Shabab demonstrates strong cooperation with the US on security matters. The Russian Embassy's denial of coercing Nigerian students to fight in Ukraine and the Nigerian Foreign Ministry's debunking of these claims indicate a neutral relationship with Russia rather than any alignment. |
| Niger | Read | 5 | Niger is showing significant preference for aligning with Russia, evidenced by multiple strategic actions that indicate a shift away from traditional Western alliances. This includes severed defense and diplomatic ties with France and the expulsion of US military forces. In addition, Niger has welcomed Russian military personnel for training and defense setup, alongside Russian deployment to former US bases, signifying increased Russian involvement. |
| Chad | Read | 4 | Chad's current situation shows a significant amount of internal and external pressure influencing its geopolitical stance. The internal turmoil from the ammunition depot explosions, substantial refugee influx due to the Sudanese civil war, and historical political instability present immediate challenges. Additionally, external factors, such as Russian engagement through Lavrov's visit and paramilitary presence in neighboring countries, indicate rising Russian influence. The detailed evidence of UAE arms transfers via Chad and US concerns over rebel attacks underscore Chad's precarious position. While Chad is heavily stressed internally and externally, its geopolitical preferences lean slightly but not decisively towards Russia. |
| Egypt | Read | 1 | Egypt shows a significant preference for aligning with the USA, as indicated by its involvement in ceasefire negotiations alongside the US and Qatar, as well as the participation of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in these efforts. |
| Libya | Read | 4 | Libya shows more alignment with Russia as evidenced by multiple instances of Russian involvement in military and strategic initiatives, including support of rebel commander Khalifa Haftar, control of Libya’s Al Jufra Air Base, and increased influence via the Wagner Group. This points to a moderate-to-high risk of Libya leaning further towards Russia from its current slightly higher preference. |
| Algeria | Read | 3 | High-profile visits with various global leaders suggest a neutral diplomatic stance. |