### Extracted Bullet Points: 1. **Moderate Inventory Drawdowns Anticipated**: Expectation of moderate but persistent inventory drawdowns due to demand outpacing supply. (Source: EIA forecasts, July 2023) 2. **Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast**: The price is anticipated to rise to the mid-$80 per barrel range by the end of 2024, an increase from the June 2023 average of $75 per barrel. (Source: EIA forecasts, July 2023) 3. **OPEC+ Production Cuts**: Agreements to extend crude oil production cuts through the end of 2024, with voluntary cuts announced by Saudi Arabia. (Source: EIA forecasts, July 2023) 4. **Global Production of Petroleum**: Forecasted at an average of 33.9 million b/d in 2024, a decrease from 2022 peaks. (Source: EIA forecasts, July 2023) 5. **Increase in World Petroleum Consumption**: Expected growth in non-OECD consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels, led by China and India. (Source: EIA forecasts, July 2023) 6. **Market Conditions and Price Collar**: A predicted price range (collar) around the market maintained by OPEC+ to balance prices within a specified range. (Source: Goldman Sachs analysis, January 2024) 7. **Global Economic Slowdown**: Acknowledgment of a global economic slowdown potentially affecting oil prices and demand. (Source: Various analyses, including Goldman Sachs and Euronews, 2024 forecasts) 8. **Increased Production from Non-OPEC Countries**: Expected increase in oil production from the US, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, and Canada, potentially contributing to a supply surplus. (Source: Various analyses, 2024 outlook) ### Forecast Rationale and Logic: Based on the extracted bullet points and the anticipation of demand-supply dynamics, geopolitical factors, and production adjustments by major oil-producing entities, the following speculative forecast is deduced: 1. **Demand-Supply Balance**: The aggregate effect of OPEC+ production cuts and the projected increase in global petroleum consumption suggests a tighter demand-supply balance in 2024. However, increased production from non-OPEC countries might offset this balance, potentially leading to a more stabilized market. 2. **Price Sensitivity to Geopolitical Events**: The oil market has historically been sensitive to geopolitical events. The sustained cuts and voluntary reductions by OPEC+ indicate an effort to stabilize the market. However, any unforeseen geopolitical tensions, especially in key oil-producing regions, could introduce volatility to oil prices beyond the anticipated ranges. 3. **Impact of Global Economic Conditions**: The anticipation of a global economic slowdown, especially with weakened economic indicators in major economies, may lead to reduced oil demand than forecasted. This could exert downward pressure on prices, especially if production from non-OPEC countries remains robust. 4. **Technological and Consumption Patterns**: The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and a shift towards renewable energy sources in major economies could start to impact oil demand marginally by the end of 2024. While this impact may not be significantly drastic in the immediate term, it sets a precedent for future demand shifts. Considering these factors, the speculative forecast for oil prices by the end of the 2024 calendar year, balancing the potential for both supply adequacy and demand uncertainties alongside geopolitical dynamics, is: **The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $82 USD per barrel.** This forecast considers moderate inventory drawdowns, OPEC+ production strategies, anticipated demand from non-OECD countries (mainly China and India), global economic slowdown indications, and potential for increased oil supply from non-OPEC countries. It reflects a cautious view on price escalation due to possible subdued demand from economic headwinds balanced against strategic supply adjustments by major oil producers.