To develop a forecast for the oil price by the end of the 2024 calendar year based on the provided content, we need to analyze various factors mentioned across the different reports and information sources discussed. These factors typically inform supply, demand, and geopolitical dynamics that influence oil prices. ### Supply Factors: 1. **OPEC+ Production Restraint**: Continued production restraint by OPEC+ is expected to influence supply, potentially providing a floor to oil prices. 2. **Non-OPEC Production Growth**: Increase in oil supply from countries like the USA, Brazil, Norway, and Canada, including significant contributions from long-term projects in Guyana. 3. **US Crude Oil Production**: The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts record US crude oil production in 2024 and 2025, suggesting an ample supply. ### Demand Factors: 1. **Forecasted Global Demand**: EIA forecasts that global liquid fuels consumption will reach a new record in 2025, indicating strong demand. 2. **China and India's Demand Growth**: Despite some deceleration, China and India are expected to lead consumption growth, supporting global demand. ### Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty: 1. **Middle East Tensions**: Escalating tensions in the Red Sea and the broader Middle East could disrupt global oil trade flows, potentially driving prices higher. 2. **Global Economic Outlook**: Economic growth forecasts, including projections from the IMF, affect oil demand. Potential economic downturns could dampen demand, affecting prices. ### Market Dynamics: 1. **Inventory Levels**: The physical inventory balance and its relation to expectations influence market perceptions and thus prices. 2. **Future Price Collars**: Discussions about a price collar suggest OPEC's ability to influence floor prices, with a range that could influence future market expectations. ### Logic and Rationale for Forecast: Given the balanced view of increasing supply from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ members and anticipated record consumption levels driven mainly by non-OECD countries, the market appears to be heading towards a relatively balanced state. However, geopolitical risks, notably in the Middle East, present significant upside price risk. Furthermore, the EIA's projection of a slight decrease in oil prices in 2025 suggests that the market expects supply growth to slightly outpace demand, putting downward pressure on prices. However, considering that geopolitical tensions can escalate quickly and unpredictably, affecting supply chains and global shipments, and the somewhat bullish demand prospects led by major Asian economies, a moderate increase from current levels could be anticipated. Taking into account OPEC+'s production restraint's potential to establish a price floor and the growth in global demand despite potential economic headwinds, we can posit a cautiously optimistic outlook for oil prices by the end of 2024. **Forecast Conclusion**: Considering these factors, the geopolitical uncertainties which often lead to price spikes, the anticipation of record demand, and OPEC+'s strategies to manage supply, oil prices are likely to be volatile. However, assuming no severe disruptions or economic downturns, and taking into account the overall balanced supply-demand dynamics and the downward price projection for 2025 as supply potentially overtakes demand, a slight increase from the EIA's forecasted averages is plausible, yet with an upper limit constrained by potential global economic headwinds and increased production capacities. Therefore, my speculative forecast, balancing these factors, would tentatively posit: The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $85 USD per barrel.