To forecast the price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year, I will extract critical bullet points from the provided documents, analyze trends, and incorporate key factors affecting supply and demand. Here's a step-by-step breakdown: ### Extracted Critical Bullet Points 1. **Global Supply and Demand Balance**: The global supply and demand of petroleum liquids are expected to be relatively balanced, with minor changes in the average price forecast. 2. **Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast**: The Brent crude oil price is anticipated to average $82 per barrel in 2024 and $79 per barrel in 2025. 3. **Contributors to Price Stability**: Continued OPEC+ production restraint and contributions from non-OPEC+ countries such as the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada. 4. **Possible Factors for Price Volatility**: Geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions critical to oil trade, could disrupt global oil trade flows, potentially driving prices upward. 5. **Projected US Production**: US crude oil production is forecasted to grow, reaching record levels in 2024 and continuing to increase in 2025. 6. **OPEC+ Production Restraint**: OPEC+ production restraint is expected to keep prices stable, but decisions to reduce or end production restraint could lead to price declines. 7. **Global Oil Consumption Growth**: Oil consumption growth is projected to slow down due to energy efficiency improvements and an expanding EV fleet. ### Logic and Rationale for the Forecast - **Supply Factors**: Increased oil production from non-OPEC+ countries, combined with OPEC+ restraint, suggests a relatively well-supplied market. US production reaching record levels highlights a significant supply side contributor. - **Demand Factors**: The expected slowdown in global oil consumption growth, partly because of energy efficiency and the growth in the EV market, indicates demand might not significantly outpace supply. - **Geopolitical Risks**: While the forecast points towards a balanced market, unforeseen geopolitical tensions, such as disruptions in critical shipping channels, could lead to temporary price spikes. - **Economic Growth**: Global economic indicators and recovery post-pandemic will play a crucial role in determining demand. A stalling GDP growth in significant economies like China could dampen demand and exert downward pressure on prices. Considering these factors and that Brent crude oil prices are forecasted to be around $82 in 2024 with tendencies towards a slight decline in 2025, it's reasonable to anticipate some stability with a slight downward trend towards the end of 2024, factoring in potential geopolitical risks that could cause volatility. ### Forecast Based on the analysis, considering both the supply-demand dynamics and potential geopolitical risks, the forecast indicates a relatively stable but slightly declining price trajectory. Therefore, my speculative forecast is: The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $80 USD per barrel.