Given the information culled from the provided sources, here are the critical bullet points to extract and consider for crafting an oil price forecast for the end of the 2024 calendar year: 1. **Persistent Inventory Drawdowns**: Moderate but ongoing inventory drawdowns are expected due to demand outstripping supply, indicating upward pressure on prices. 2. **Production Cuts by OPEC+**: Agreements by OPEC+ members to extend crude oil production cuts through the end of 2024 are expected to reduce supply further. 3. **Saudi Arabia's Production Cuts**: As a major oil producer, Saudi Arabia's voluntary production cuts significantly impact global supply and therefore prices. 4. **Non-OEC Consumption Increase**: Particularly, in China and India, consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels is forecasted to grow, leading to higher demand. 5. **Oil Price Volatility**: Between 2020 and 2022, oil prices were notably volatile. This trend, coupled with changes in production and consumption, could affect future prices. 6. **Forecasted Price Increase from EIA**: The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts Brent crude oil price to increase to the mid-$80s per barrel by the end of 2024. 7. **Global Liquid Fuels Consumption**: Expected lower growth rates over the next two years, with a new record of over 103.5 million barrels per day by 2025, indicating increasing demand. 8. **Global Liquid Fuels Production Slowdown**: A forecasted slowdown in production growth, especially from non-OPEC producers, could tighten the market. 9. **Brent Crude Oil Price Projections**: Various forecasts anticipate Brent crude oil prices averaging around $82 per barrel in 2024, potentially falling to $79/b in 2025. 10. **Geopolitical Uncertainties and Supply Risks**: Recent developments in the Middle East and other geopolitical factors could lead to supply disruptions, causing higher and more volatile prices than currently forecasted. ### Logic and Rationale for Forecast By carefully considering the aforementioned points, especially the expected inventory drawdowns, OPEC+ production cuts, increasing demand from non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, alongside potential geopolitical risks that could disrupt supply, a forecast for the oil price by the end of 2024 can be made. The cumulative effect of reduced supply due to OPEC+ cuts and voluntary cuts from major producers like Saudi Arabia, combined with the growing demand, particularly from Asia, suggests a tightening global oil market. ### Forecast Given these considerations and the forecasts from reputable sources projecting Brent crude oil to be in the mid-$80s to low $90s per barrel, and factoring in potential geopolitical risks that could lead to supply disruptions hence pushing prices higher, a moderated approach to the forecast is suggested. The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $87 USD per barrel. This forecast is cautiously optimistic, placing the price within the range suggested by several forecasts but towards the higher end, acknowledging the potential for geopolitical tensions to elevate prices beyond current expectations.