Prediction

Fill-in-the-Blank:
The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $____ USD per barrel. (View Statement)

Value: 90.0

Extends: None

Forecasts Extending This One: None

Justification

Written on Jan. 30, 2024, 10:47 p.m.

Based on the provided information, here are the extracted critical bullet points: 1. **Increased Oil Demand/Prices Forecasted for 2024**: Various forecasts point towards higher global oil prices in 2024, with predictions focusing around the mid-$80s to mid-$90s per barrel for Brent crude. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) specifically projects the Brent crude oil price to increase to the mid-$80s per barrel by the end of 2024, up from the June 2023 average of $75 per barrel. 2. **OPEC+ Production Cuts and Agreements**: OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have agreed to extend production cuts through the end of 2024. Saudi Arabia announced a new voluntary oil production cut of 1.0 million barrels per day for July and August 2023, contributing to a tighter oil supply forecast. 3. **Global Oil Production and Consumption Trends**: The EIA forecasts a moderate inventory drawdown between 2023 and 2024 due to production cuts and increased petroleum consumption. Non-OECD petroleum and liquid fuels consumption is expected to grow, with China and India leading the consumption growth. 4. **Market Uncertainties and Potential Price Volatility**: Various reports and analyses suggest a degree of uncertainty that could influence oil prices, including geopolitical trends, policy decisions by major oil producers, and broader economic factors that could either support the current price trends or lead to volatility. Based on the above points, and considering both the anticipated constraints on supply due to OPEC+ production cuts and the forecasted increase in global demand, particularly from non-OECD countries, there is a rational expectation for upward pressure on oil prices. However, it's essential to acknowledge the setting's inherent uncertainties, including geopolitical risks, potential changes in production agreements, and macroeconomic factors that could affect global demand. Considering the aggregation of the forecasted price ranges, the extended OPEC+ production cuts, the expected increase in global oil demand, and the potential for geopolitical and economic uncertainties to create both upward and downward pressure on prices, a forecast is being made within the context of available data and prevailing trends: The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $90 USD per barrel. This forecast aims to balance the expected tight supply situation with the rising global demand and the potential for unforeseen economic or geopolitical factors to impact global oil markets.