Based on the information provided from various sources regarding oil prices, production, and market trends, here are the critical bullet points extracted to inform the forecast: 1. **Demand and Supply Dynamics**: Global oil demand growth is losing momentum, with an anticipated slowdown in growth to 1.2 mb/d in 2024. China, India, and Brazil will continue to dominate consumption growth. 2. **Production Cuts and Increases**: OPEC+ extended crude oil production cuts through the end of 2024, which could limit supply. However, record output from the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada is expected to boost non-OPEC+ supply. 3. **Inventory Levels**: Global observed oil stocks plummeted by about 60 mb in January 2024, indicating tighter inventories which could support higher prices. 4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Escalating hostilities in the Middle East and disruptions in major oil-producing regions could influence prices. 5. **Market Expectations**: Various forecasts project Brent crude oil prices to range from as low as $75 per barrel to as high as over $90 per barrel by the end of 2024. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expectations are relatively stable, with Brent crude oil price averaging around $82 per barrel in 2024. 6. **Bank Forecasts**: Major U.S. banks expect median Brent prices of $85 for 2024, while outliers like Standard Chartered forecast higher prices, anticipating the cost to reach around $92 in the first quarter alone. 7. **Winter Impact**: A winter freeze causing supply outages in North America and voluntary output curbs by OPEC+ tightened the oil market balances significantly in January 2024. Considering these factors, the forecast must balance the expected growth in supply, particularly from non-OPEC+ sources, against the potential for demand slowdown, geopolitical tensions, and tighter inventories that may push prices up. **Forecast Logic and Rationale**: Given the moderate demand growth slowdown, significant supply boosts from non-OPEC+ countries, and the possibility of strategic output reductions by OPEC+, it is plausible to anticipate some volatility with potential for both upward and downward pressures on oil prices. Yet, the recurring theme across sources is a tempered expectation of significant spikes in prices, barring unforeseen geopolitical escalations. Also critical are the reminders of the persistent, albeit moderating, impact of inventory levels and geopolitical tensions which may introduce sudden volatility. The continued growth from key consumers like China, India, and Brazil suggests that the floor for demand might be more stable than anticipated. **Forecast**: Taking into account the mixed signals from projected increase in non-OPEC+ production which tends to cap prices, against the backdrop of tighter global inventories and potential geopolitical disruptions that could spike prices, a balanced forecast would lean towards moderate increase within the anticipated bank forecasts' range. Thus, respecting the insights gathered, our speculative forecast prioritizes a nuanced understanding of the market dynamics present in the provided information. **The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $85 USD per barrel.** This forecast aligns with the median predictions presented, takes into account the potential supply and demand dynamics outlined, and appreciates the unpredictable nature of geopolitical factors that could induce price volatility. It presents a balanced outlook in an environment where varying factors pull oil prices in different directions.