PREDICTION: 0.80 JUSTIFICATION: The upward adjustment in the forecast probability to 0.80 that July 2024 will be the hottest on record is now reinforced by new data indicating a series of record-breaking temperatures and persistent El Niño conditions. This justification integrates recent climate observations up to March 2024 and anticipates their implications for July 2024: - **Record-breaking January 2024 Temperatures**: January 2024 emerged as the warmest January on record globally, a significant indicator of the unabated trend in climbing global temperatures. This anomaly carries forward the momentum for extreme weather patterns, setting a precedent for the months ahead, including July 2024. - **El Niño Conditions**: The continuation of El Niño conditions into January 2024, with a projected transition to ENSO-neutral by mid-2024, suggests a potential for sustained global warming effects into the summer. Historically, El Niño years correlate with increased global temperatures, and although a transition towards La Niña is suggested by mid-2024, the residual warmth from the prolonged El Niño period could impact global temperatures well into July. - **Extended Ocean Warming Trends**: The observation of record-high global ocean surface temperatures for the tenth consecutive month amplifies concerns over global warming impacts. Ocean temperatures play a crucial role in regulating the planet's climate, and sustained increases are likely to contribute to higher terrestrial temperatures in the following months, including July. - **Geographical and Seasonal Anomaly Spread**: The record warmth in January 2024 was not isolated to specific regions but spread across both hemispheres, indicating a broad base for the warming trend. This widespread anomaly sets a concerning backdrop for the summer months, especially in regions that typically experience their peak temperatures in July. - **Significance of Early 2024 Records**: The establishment of early 2024 as a period of record warmth, including specific unprecedented temperature highs in locations like Scotland, underscores the ongoing trajectory towards warmer global climates. This pattern aligns with the expectation of continuing, if not intensifying, heat records in the immediate future, including July 2024. **Note on Predictive Factors and Uncertainties**: It is important to recognize the inherent unpredictability of climate phenomena, including the exact transitional dynamics between El Niño and La Niña conditions and their global implications. Additionally, factors such as volcanic eruptions, unexpected shifts in ocean currents, or rapid changes in greenhouse gas emissions could alter expected outcomes. Given the latest data and its alignment with ongoing climate change trends, an adjustment in the forecast appears warranted. The prediction of a 0.80 probability that July 2024 will be the hottest on record reflects a data-informed assessment, acknowledging both the recent trends in temperature anomalies and the broader context of climate change dynamics. This forecast emphasizes the necessity of continuous climate monitoring and the integration of emerging data into predictive models.