Based on the information provided and analysis of current trends, here are some critical bullet points to consider for forecasting oil prices by the end of the 2024 calendar year: 1. **Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Disruptions:** Recent geopolitical events, such as tensions in the Middle East and supply interruptions, have the potential to disrupt global oil supply chains, leading to fluctuations in oil prices. 2. **OPEC+ Production Cuts and Policies:** The decisions made by OPEC and its allies regarding production cuts or increases have a significant impact on global oil supply and, consequently, on oil prices. Extended production cuts can lead to higher oil prices. 3. **Global Economic Growth and Demand for Oil:** The rate of global economic recovery and growth influences demand for oil. Increased demand due to economic growth can push prices higher. 4. **US Oil Production Trends:** The US Energy Information Administration’s forecasts for US oil production indicate an expectation of production growth, which might contribute to meeting global oil demand. 5. **Energy Transition and Technological Advances:** Advances in renewable energy technologies and shifts towards greener energy sources can influence the long-term demand for oil, potentially affecting prices. 6. **Inventory Levels and Storage Capacities:** Global oil inventory levels and storage capacities play a role in oil pricing. A buildup in inventories usually suggests lower prices, while declining inventories can lead to price increases. 7. **Historical Price Patterns:** Examining historical price patterns and seasonality in oil demand can provide insights into potential future price movements. Logic and Rationale for Forecast: Considering the above points, the forecast for oil prices by the end of the 2024 calendar year must take into account both supply and demand factors, as well as external geopolitical and economic influences. The potential for geopolitical tensions to disrupt supply suggests a risk of price spikes. However, continued production growth, especially from non-OPEC+ countries, could help balance the market and moderate prices. OPEC+ decisions to manage supply and expectations of US production growth indicate a managed supply side, which can support prices but also limit excessive increases if production is adjusted to meet demand effectively. Economic recovery and growth will drive demand, potentially pushing prices higher, but the pace of the energy transition and advances in renewable sources could offset some of this demand increase in the longer term. Considering these factors, along with current trends indicating a range in forecasts with a median Brent price expectation around the mid-$80s per barrel by respected financial and energy institutions, a cautious forecast would suggest a stabilization or moderate increase in oil prices by the end of 2024, barring unforeseen geopolitical shocks or significant changes in supply and demand dynamics. Forecast Statement: The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $87 USD per barrel.