Based on the information provided in the documents, here are the key points distilled to inform a forecast on the price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year: - **OPEC+ Production Cuts**: OPEC and its allies, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, have undertaken voluntary production cuts. Saudi Arabia announced a third production cut in June, while Russia declared a plan to cut production by 500,000 barrels a day. These cuts are aimed at supporting oil prices amid a potential oversupply and expected seasonal weakness in demand. - **Global Oil Demand**: There's an expectation of continuing global demand for oil, with some forecasting growth into 2024. S&P Global Commodity Insights mentions slowing energy demand growth due to a decelerating macroeconomic framework, yet geopolitical events could counterbalance this by reducing supply or raising risks of supply disruptions. - **Geopolitical Uncertainty**: Ongoing geopolitical tension, including conflict in the Middle East, US-China relations, and potential disruptions in oil-producing regions, poses a risk to supply and could cause volatility in oil prices. - **Economic and Market Factors**: Economic conditions, including the potential for a recession in major economies like the US, and the continuing transition to renewable energies, will influence oil demand. The balance between maintaining oil production discipline among OPEC+ members and market share competition could impact oil pricing strategies. - **Oil Price Forecasts for 2024**: Various forecasts place Brent crude oil prices in the range from $80 to $100 per barrel for 2024. S&P Global Commodity Insights suggests that in the base case, oil prices will likely hover above $80/bbl and could inch closer to $90/bbl by the third quarter of 2024. Goldman Sachs’s Asset & Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group sees the price potentially trading between $70 and $100 for much of 2024. - **Contributing Factors to Price Increase**: The collective impact of production cuts, geopolitical tensions, global demand, and economic conditions contributes to the expectation of rising oil prices in 2024. **Forecast Logic and Rationale**: Given the reduction in global oil supply due to OPEC+ production cuts, concomitant with expected global demand growth (albeit potentially slowed by economic factors) and heightened geopolitical risks that could disrupt supply further, there is a clear inclination toward tighter oil markets and upward pressure on oil prices in 2024. The range of forecasts, considering these dynamics, positions oil prices to likely be higher than current levels, leaning toward the upper end of the forecast range due to the potential for unexpected supply disruptions. **Forecast**: The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $90 USD per barrel. This forecast aligns with the upper range of discussed expectations, considering the potent combination of production discipline within OPEC+, geopolitical uncertainties potentially impacting supply, and a resilient though variable global demand for oil.