### Critical Bullet Points: - OPEC+ production cuts in 2023, reducing supply by approximately 3.66 million barrels per day, equating to about 3% of global oil demand. - Oil prices rallied in 2023, peaking at $97 per barrel after Saudi Arabia volunteered for additional cuts. - Economic slowdown in major economies including China, Europe, and the United States. German oil demand fell by 90,000 barrels per day in 2023. US manufacturing activity declined for 13 consecutive months. - A recession in 2024 is considered likely, with a deepening economic slowdown globally. - Expected increased oil supply in 2024 from the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, and Canada. The US production recently reached a high of 13.24 million barrels per day. - Global oil demand is expected to rise in 2024, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting a 1.1 million barrels per day increase, and non-OPEC producers contributing an additional 1.2 million barrels per day. - Analytical consensus suggests more downside potential for oil prices due to economic conditions and a high probability of recession. - Goldman Sachs revised its Brent oil price forecast to average around $80/$81. Other entities have their forecasts, with IEA at $82.57 per barrel, Barclays at $93, and S&P Global at $85. - The main determinant for oil prices in 2024 is the global economic condition, with oil demand highly correlated with economic activity. ### Forecast Logic and Rationale: Considering the expected increase in supply from non-OPEC countries and a potentially higher global production ceiling, coupled with the anticipation of economic slowdown or recession in major economies, it stands to reason that supply may outpace demand, exerting downward pressure on oil prices. However, the various forecasts from reputable sources like Goldman Sachs, IEA, Barclays, and S&P Global, averaging around the low to mid $80s per barrel, suggest that the oil market could find a new equilibrium at these levels. The technical support levels mentioned for WTI and Brent crude also provide a floor that suggests a significant downturn in prices is unlikely unless there's a severe global economic downturn surpassing current expectations. Additionally, geopolitical events could unexpectedly influence prices, but barring such developments, the current predictions and analyses light the way. Given these factors, including the expected global demand recovery being somewhat offset by an increase in oil supply and the looming risk of economic recession, a balanced view would position the forecast near the lower end of professional forecasts to account for both the pressures and supports identified. ### Forecast: The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $82 USD per barrel.