Based on the information provided, here are the critical bullet points extracted for making an informed forecast on oil prices by the end of the 2024 calendar year: - **OPEC+ Production Cuts:** Saudi Arabia has notably reduced its oil production as a voluntary move. Other OPEC+ members have similarly adjusted their output targets, which has been fundamental in tightening the global oil market. - **Global Oil Demand Growth:** The global demand for oil in 2023 and forecasts for 2024 show a trend towards growth, albeit with the EIA slightly lowering its outlook for both years. This indicates a potential disparity between supply and demand, which generally puts upward pressure on prices. - **Brent and WTI Prices:** The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has substantially increased its forecast for Brent and WTI crude prices in 2024, suggesting a significant upward trend. - **Geopolitical Uncertainty and Risks:** The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, combined with other geopolitical tensions, introduces a layer of unpredictability that could affect supply chains and global oil prices. - **Non-OPEC Production and Global Economic Outlook:** Non-OPEC production growth, particularly from non-US producers, coupled with economic uncertainties and speculations about a US recession, could impact oil prices by affecting global demand and supply dynamics. - **Biofuels Consumption and Jet Fuel Demand:** The forecasted increase in biofuels consumption, which is set to replace a portion of petroleum-based fuels, and the expected rise in jet fuel demand, returning to pre-pandemic levels, may also influence overall oil market dynamics. By considering these factors, the central theme emerges around tightened supply due to OPEC+ production cuts against a backdrop of recovering or sustained demand. The geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties add volatility to the market but may also skew the price trends upwards if supply disruptions occur or if demand outpaces the cautious supply increments. Given these points, the speculative aspects particularly relevant are the effectiveness and duration of OPEC+ production cuts, the actual impact of geopolitical tensions on supply chains, and how global economic conditions will affect oil demand. **Forecast Logic and Rationale:** Combining the upward revision of price forecasts by the EIA, the continuing demand growth despite slight adjustments, and significant geopolitical risks, it is reasonable to expect that the price of oil would trend higher in 2024. However, it is also crucial to weigh the potential for increased non-OPEC production and any economic downturns, which could soften price escalations. Therefore, considering the variable factors with a stronger influence from supply-side constraints and demand resilience against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, my forecast is: **The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $95 USD per barrel.** This forecast aligns with the optimistic scenarios provided by institutions like the EIA and accounts for possible volatility due to geopolitical risks, squeezed supply, and the underlying momentum in demand recovery towards pre-pandemic levels, adapted for a slight buffer against unforeseen increases in non-OPEC production or economic downturn impacts.