Given the task to forecast oil prices by the end of 2024 based on the provided information, here's a structured analysis: ### Critical Bullet Points Extraction 1. **OPEC+ Production Cuts:** Throughout 2023, OPEC+ announced and implemented production cuts to stabilize the oil market. These actions have historically led to increases in oil prices due to reduced supply. 2. **Economic Slowdown:** There's an anticipated global economic slowdown, with potential recessions in major economies, which could lead to reduced demand for oil. 3. **Global Oil Demand and Supply Dynamics:** While there have been production cuts from OPEC+, non-OPEC countries like the US, Brazil, Norway, and Canada are expected to add to the global oil supply. 4. **Geopolitical Tensions:** Ongoing and potential future geopolitical tensions, particularly in oil-rich regions, pose a risk for sudden price surges due to threats to supply. 5. **Technological and Policy Shifts Toward Renewables:** The continuous push for renewable energy sources and electric vehicles might lead to a decrease in oil demand over time. 6. **Price Predictions and Analyst Consensus:** Various forecasts from credible institutions like the EIA, Goldman Sachs, and others suggest a range of average prices for Brent crude oil, generally expecting higher prices in 2024 compared to 2023 but acknowledging significant uncertainty. ### Logic and Rationale for Making a Forecast Given the above considerations, the price of oil by the end of 2024 will be influenced by a balance between supply cuts (which push prices up) and economic slowdowns (which reduce demand and push prices down). Geopolitical tensions could introduce volatility and sudden price spikes. Analyst consensus provides a mixed but slightly bullish outlook on average prices. However, the increasing role of non-OPEC production may help to buffer the impact of OPEC+ production cuts. Meanwhile, the gradual transition to renewable energy sources and electric vehicles may begin to dampen oil demand growth. ### Forecast Considering the factors of supply reductions due to OPEC+ actions, potential demand drops from a slowing global economy, and the push for renewable energy, it's plausible to forecast a modestly bullish scenario with volatility due to geopolitical risks. **Forecast:** The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $85 USD per barrel. This forecast banks on the likelihood of continued, albeit potentially moderated, OPEC+ production restraints, coupled with a partial recovery in global economic activities post-recession fears fading. However, it also factors in the growing influence of non-OPEC supply and the gradual shift towards greener alternatives moderating the potential rise in prices.