Given the provided facts, the forecast for the oil price by the end of the 2024 calendar year would need to reconcile several indications and trends. Here's the rationale for the forecast: 1. **Downward and Upward Pressures**: There are both bullish and bearish signals in the data. For example, Paul McDade's bullish outlook and expectations of a strong global demand suggest upward pressures on prices [1, 2]. Conversely, projections of average prices around the low $80s and the presence of market volatility suggest some restraint on how high prices might go [3, 4, 5, 6, 7]. 2. **Market Expectations and Analysts' Forecasts**: Analyst and institution forecasts provide a middling view, with J.P. Morgan and others expecting averages around $83 per barrel for 2024 [8, 9], which points towards stabilization rather than significant growth or decline. 3. **Current Trends and Immediate Historical Context**: Oil prices have shown an ability to reach and exceed $90 per barrel in the recent past due to factors like OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical tensions [10, 11]. However, there are also expectations of sufficient supply and concerns over demand that could dampen significant price increases [12, 13]. 4. **AF1 and Current Market Sentiment**: The additional fact provided shows today's oil price is about $85 [AF1], which aligns closely with past trends and near-term expectations laid out in other facts [14]. Considering the mix of upward pressures from demand expectations and OPEC+ strategies [15, 16], alongside the stabilizing effect of forecasts averaging in the low $80s for 2024 [17, 18, 19], and coupled with the current price situation [AF1], it seems reasonable to predict a slight increase from the current levels, tempered by the overarching market volatility and analyst expectations. Hence, consolidating these insights into a single forecast, noting the upward and downward pressures: The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $86 USD per barrel. Sources: 1 :: https://www.oilholicssynonymous.com/2023/10/crude-chat-with-afentra-plc-ceo-paul.html 2 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/01/crude-oil-prices-today.html 3 :: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/developmenttalk/commodity-markets-outlook-eight-charts-1 4 :: https://www.oilholicssynonymous.com/2024/01/the-mad-first-month-of-crude-trading.html 5 :: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/BTL/2024/01-brentprice/article.php 6 :: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook 7 :: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook 8 :: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook 9 :: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook 10 :: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/developmenttalk/commodity-markets-outlook-eight-charts-1 11 :: https://www.oilholicssynonymous.com/2023/09/oil-in-90s-reimagining-bp-without.html 12 :: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/BTL/2024/01-brentprice/article.php 13 :: https://www.oilholicssynonymous.com/2023/11/can-oil-really-hit-150-and-more.html 14 :: https://www.oilholicssynonymous.com/2024/03/heading-to-ceraweek-with-oil-north-of.html 15 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/01/crude-oil-prices-today.html 16 :: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/BTL/2024/01-brentprice/article.php 17 :: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/BTL/2024/01-brentprice/article.php 18 :: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook 19 :: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook