### Critical Bullet Points Extraction: 1. **Global Oil Demand Trends**: - Demand expected to reach a new record high of 102 million barrels per day in 2023. - Goldman Sachs predicts that oil demand growth will slow due to tighter financial conditions and elevated US recession odds. 2. **Impact of OPEC+ Production Decisions**: - Goldman Sachs anticipates Brent could reach $107 a barrel by December 2024 if OPEC+ extends current production cuts. - Saudi Arabia and Russia have committed to production cuts, which have been actualized, tightening global markets. - OPEC+ may consider extending production cuts through 2024, affecting price dynamics. 3. **US Oil Production and Prices**: - US oil production is expected to grow, with forecasts showing an increase to 13.12 million b/d in 2024. - Despite increased US production, global supply growth is limited, pushing oil prices upwards. 4. **Geopolitical Risks and Uncertainties**: - The Israel-Hamas war poses potential for oil price volatility, with fears of disruptions, although historical impact on supply has been minimal. - Geopolitical tensions in key regions could lead to sharp price rallies or drawdowns amidst macroeconomic uncertainties. 5. **Influence of Economic Factors**: - A potential US recession and the economic slowdown could temper demand growth. - Goldman Sachs assigns a 30%-40% likelihood of a US recession over the next 12 months. 6. **Energy Transition and Consumption Patterns**: - Global shift towards renewable energy and biofuels increasing, potentially affecting petroleum demand dynamics. - Efforts to reduce carbon emissions and enhance fuel efficiency standards could influence long-term oil demand. ### Logic and Rationale for Forecast: Based on the information provided, the forecast considers several key factors: - **Supply Constraints**: The commitment of major OPEC+ members to production cuts, and potential extension of these cuts, significantly constrains supply, inherently applying upward pressure on prices. - **Demand Growth Slowing**: While global oil demand remains robust and is expected to hit record highs, the anticipated slowing of demand growth due to economic uncertainties, particularly in the US, suggests that demand-side pressures on pricing may be moderated somewhat. - **Geopolitical Tensions and Uncertainties**: The ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly from the Middle East, introduce volatility into the oil markets. While historically, such conflicts have not led to long-term disruptions, they can cause short- to medium-term price spikes due to perceived risks to supply. - **Shifts in Energy Consumption**: The gradual transition towards renewable energy sources and biofuels could start to impact oil demand. Though this is a long-term trend, its inclusion is vital for a comprehensive outlook. - **Global Economic Outlook**: Economic conditions, including the potential for a US recession, would have a significant impact on oil consumption patterns, potentially dampening price increases. Given these points, while short-term volatility and potential price spikes are expected due to geopolitical tensions and supply-side constraints, the pressing economic uncertainties and the global shift towards renewable energy suggest a somewhat moderated long-term upward pressure on oil prices. ### Forecast: Considering the various influencing factors—supply constraints due to OPEC+ production cuts, economic uncertainties tempering demand growth, geopolitical risks introducing volatility, and the long-term shift towards renewables—there is a balanced mix of upward and downward pressures on oil prices. However, supply-side constraints and geopolitical uncertainties are likely to be more immediately impactful. **The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $95 USD per barrel.** This forecast takes into account the potential for both sharp spikes in prices due to short-term factors and the moderating effects of economic headwinds and shifts in energy consumption patterns.