Based on the provided information, here is an analysis leading to a forecast: **Critical Bullet Points:** - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts an average Brent crude oil price of $82 per barrel in 2024 and $79 per barrel in 2025, with expectations of a relatively balanced global supply and demand. - OPEC+ production restraint is considered a principal factor in maintaining current price levels. Forecasted average production for OPEC+ is 36.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 and 37.2 million b/d in 2025, both below the pre-pandemic average. - Non-OPEC+ countries are predicted to see a slowdown in production growth from 2.5 million b/d in 2023 to 1.1 million b/d in 2024 and 0.8 million b/d in 2025, with the United States experiencing a considerable reduction in production growth. - Global petroleum consumption is expected to grow by 1.4 million b/d in 2024 and 1.2 million b/d in 2025, enhanced by economic growth and the return to pre-pandemic travel patterns. - Electric vehicles and hybrids are gradually displacing some motor gasoline consumption, potentially influencing oil demand. - Geopolitical risks, such as tensions in the Middle East, pose uncertainties that could lead to unplanned production disruptions, impacting global oil prices. **Logic and Rationale for Forecast:** Given the critical considerations outlined above, the forecast aims to balance several factors: - **Supply-Demand Dynamics:** The expected balance between global oil supply and demand suggests moderate fluctuations in oil prices. If supply and demand remain relatively balanced as projected, significant price surges or drops may be unlikely. - **OPEC+ Production Restraint:** OPEC+'s continued production restraint is a stabilizing factor, preventing significant price declines. However, the potential for voluntary or additional production cuts could introduce upward pressure on prices if global demand rises faster than anticipated. - **Non-OPEC+ Production Trends:** The slowdown in production growth from non-OPEC+ countries, particularly the U.S., may contribute to tighter global oil markets, supporting higher prices, especially if any geopolitical events lead to unexpected supply disruptions. - **Global Economic Growth:** Economic growth driving petroleum consumption, especially in emerging markets like China and India, could push demand higher, potentially leading to price increases if supply cannot adequately meet demand. - **Geopolitical Risks:** The potential for geopolitical tensions or conflicts, especially in oil-rich regions, introduces a level of unpredictability. Any significant disruption could lead to temporary price spikes. **Forecast:** Considering the above factors, it appears that while the global oil market is headed towards a relatively stable state in terms of supply and demand, uncertainties remain, particularly concerning geopolitical risks that could lead to supply disruptions. Therefore, while following the EIA's forecast as a baseline, adjustments for potential geopolitical events suggest that a slight increase in oil prices might occur, but within a limited range as OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries' production strategies and global economic factors act as counterbalances. **Forecast Statement:** The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $87 USD per barrel. This forecast incorporates the EIA's projections but allows for slight upward adjustments to account for the uncertainties and potential impact of geopolitical risks, production adjustments, and stronger-than-expected global demand, particularly from major consumers like China and India.