Prediction

Fill-in-the-Blank:
The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $____ USD per barrel. (View Statement)

Value: 80.0

Extends: None

Forecasts Extending This One: None

Justification

Written on April 14, 2024, 6:48 p.m.

After reviewing the data and information provided, here are the critical bullet points extracted: 1. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts the Brent crude oil price to average $82 per barrel (b) in 2024 and $79/b in 2025. 2. Global supply and demand of petroleum liquids are expected to be relatively balanced in the forthcoming years. 3. OPEC+ production restraint and coordinated production cuts are anticipated to keep prices near current levels. 4. Non-OPEC+ countries, including the United States, are expected to see a slowdown in production growth compared to previous years. 5. Global oil consumption is forecasted to increase, driven by economic growth and recovery in travel patterns post-pandemic. 6. There are concerns over potential unplanned production disruptions and escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Red Sea area. 7. Oil demand is synonymous with economic activity; hence, global economic indicators and potential recession scenarios could impact oil prices. 8. Goldman Sachs revised its 2024 oil price forecast to between $70 and $90 per barrel of Brent, attributing the revision to higher U.S. oil production. 9. Citigroup forecasts an average 2024 oil price of $75, considering slower demand growth and higher U.S. output. 10. Analysts have varied opinions on the 2024 oil price range, with some predicting prices might remain range-bound or trend downwards due to a global economic slowdown. Based on the above bullet points and considering the critical factors impacting crude oil prices, it becomes evident that while there is a degree of uncertainty due to potential geopolitical tensions, global economic conditions, and production dynamics, the overall expectation leans towards a stable to slightly declining price trend for Brent crude oil in 2024. The robust supply side, coupled with OPEC+ efforts to manage production and the evolving demand patterns influenced by global economic health and energy transition dynamics, are crucial factors in making this forecast. Given these considerations and projecting a cautious yet analytical view of the market conditions, the forecast for the price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year, taking into account the consensus among various expert opinions and reports, would be: The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $80 USD per barrel. This projection aims to find a middle ground between the various forecasts and anticipates that factors such as modest demand growth, controlled supply due to OPEC+ management, production increases from non-OPEC+ countries, and potential geopolitical or economic disruptions will play significant roles in determining the oil price trajectory in 2024.