Based on the information provided in the facts above, there are several key considerations to factor into adjusting the forecast for the price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year. Here’s an analysis grounded exclusively in the mentioned facts: 1. **Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Concerns**: While the facts provided do not specifically mention an escalation to conflict levels necessitating a revision to $115.0 USD per barrel due to a direct attack by Iran on Israel, they do indicate a situation where Iran has stated it will not escalate conflicts given no further provocations [1]. This communication reduces immediate concerns of a sudden sharp escalation in tensions that might severely disrupt supply chains. 2. **Market Dynamics and Sentiments**: The market traders’ focus on supply and demand fundamentals [2], despite geopolitical developments, suggests resilience in market sentiment against speculative fear regarding extended military conflicts. This resilience is somewhat counter to the drivers for an increased forecast based on geopolitical tensions. 3. **Oil Price Movement and Supply Factors**: The mentioned slight decline in prices for West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures [3, 4], alongside an assessment pointing to a sufficiency in supply and weak global demand [5], indicate market conditions not immediately poised for drastic price spikes without further significant disruptions. 4. **Analyst Expectations**: Analysts suggest a sustained rally in oil prices would likely need direct threats to supply routes or greater regional involvement [6], which have not materialized based on the facts provided. Given Iran's position on non-escalation without provocation [7] and market dismissal of escalation concerns [8], the immediate outlook doesn’t align with such disruptions. 5. **Economic and Consumption Projections**: Projections of moderating global economic growth [9] and a middle-range GDP growth forecast for the euro area [10], alongside improving but cautious consumer behavior [11], suggest a balanced demand outlook rather than one driving a significant spike in energy prices without a major supply shock. Considering these points, the absence of immediate escalation risk [12], resilient market sentiments [13], recent slight declines in oil prices [14, 15], and balanced supply-demand considerations [16] suggest a moderated impact on oil prices than previously feared. Therefore, without evidence of the significant disruptions or supply concerns factored into the $115 adjustment, the current information suggests a lesser adjustment is warranted. Reflecting on the synthesis of provided facts regarding market dynamics, geopolitical developments, and economic projections, the revised forecast aligns with a more stable oil market outlook absent further significant disruptions. The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $90 USD per barrel. Sources: 1 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/22/crude-oil-prices-today-wti-brent-fall-after-iran-says-no-escalation.html 2 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/22/crude-oil-prices-today-wti-brent-fall-after-iran-says-no-escalation.html 3 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/22/crude-oil-prices-today-wti-brent-fall-after-iran-says-no-escalation.html 4 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/22/crude-oil-prices-today-wti-brent-fall-after-iran-says-no-escalation.html 5 :: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202403_ecbstaff~f2f2d34d5a.en.html 6 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/22/crude-oil-prices-today-wti-brent-fall-after-iran-says-no-escalation.html 7 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/22/crude-oil-prices-today-wti-brent-fall-after-iran-says-no-escalation.html 8 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/22/crude-oil-prices-today-wti-brent-fall-after-iran-says-no-escalation.html 9 :: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202403_ecbstaff~f2f2d34d5a.en.html 10 :: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202403_ecbstaff~f2f2d34d5a.en.html 11 :: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202403_ecbstaff~f2f2d34d5a.en.html 12 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/22/crude-oil-prices-today-wti-brent-fall-after-iran-says-no-escalation.html 13 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/22/crude-oil-prices-today-wti-brent-fall-after-iran-says-no-escalation.html 14 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/22/crude-oil-prices-today-wti-brent-fall-after-iran-says-no-escalation.html 15 :: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/22/crude-oil-prices-today-wti-brent-fall-after-iran-says-no-escalation.html 16 :: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202403_ecbstaff~f2f2d34d5a.en.html