Based on the provided information, here are critical bullet points to consider for making a forecast on oil prices: - **Steady Average Prices Forecasted by EIA**: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts the Brent crude oil price to average around $82 per barrel in 2024 and $79 per barrel in 2025, indicating a stability in prices close to the 2023 average. - **OPEC+ Production Restraint**: OPEC+'s ongoing production restraint, including voluntary cuts announced in previous meetings, is expected to maintain prices at current levels. Production targets are set below the pre-pandemic average, suggesting a constrained supply side. - **Non-OPEC+ Production Growth**: Production growth in non-OPEC+ countries, although slowing down, continues, especially driven by the U.S., Brazil, Norway, and Canada. Longer-term projects in these countries are less sensitive to crude oil prices and contribute to non-OPEC+ production growth. - **Global Petroleum Consumption Growth**: Global petroleum consumption is forecasted to grow, albeit at a slower rate than the pre-pandemic average. Economic growth and the return to pre-pandemic travel patterns are primary drivers, particularly led by consumption in China and India. - **Impact of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Hybrids**: The increasing adoption of EVs and hybrid vehicles is expected to continue displacing some motor gasoline consumption, affecting overall demand for petroleum products. - **Global Inventories and Market Balance**: Global production is anticipated to exceed consumption by mid-2025, leading to an increase in petroleum inventories and potentially putting downward pressure on prices. However, OPEC+’s production restraint aims to prevent significant falls in prices. Given these points, the logical forecast for oil prices by the end of the 2024 calendar year would lean towards a stable but cautiously optimistic pricing environment. Prices are expected to be supported by controlled production from OPEC+ members and restrained but continuous growth from non-OPEC+ countries. The gradual increase in global petroleum consumption, alongside the potential for unplanned production disruptions, introduces a level of uncertainty that could affect prices. Nevertheless, the ongoing adoption of EVs and potential for increased inventories suggests a cap on substantial price increases. Considering these factors, a moderate increase from the EIA's forecast for 2024 appears reasonable, balancing the slight upward pressure from consumption growth and geopolitical uncertainties with the counteracting factors of increased non-OPEC+ production and evolving fuel efficiency and electric vehicle penetration. Therefore, based on the analysis: The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $85 USD per barrel.