Based on the provided content, here are the critical bullet points extracted to inform the forecast: 1. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and other sources expect continued growth in global oil demand through 2024, but at a slower pace compared to previous years, transitioning towards historical trends. 2. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects Brent crude oil prices to average $82 per barrel in 2024 and $79 per barrel in 2025, indicating relatively stable but slightly decreasing oil prices in the coming years. 3. Global oil production is expected to increase, led by non-OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada contributing to higher supply levels. 4. OPEC+ voluntary production cuts are expected to continue, aiming to support market stability and prevent significant price drops. 5. Geopolitical risks and disruptions, such as shipping attacks in the Red Sea, have the potential to temporarily impact oil prices and supply routes, creating volatility in the market. 6. Advances in technology and an increasing adoption of electric vehicles are expected to improve energy efficiency and reduce the global economy's petroleum intensity. 7. Inventory levels and the balance between supply and demand will be essential factors influencing oil prices, with recent data showing less tightening of physical inventory balances than expected. Considering the above points, my logic and rationale for making a forecast on oil prices by the end of the 2024 calendar year rely on the following factors: - The slight decrease in future price projections by reputable organizations like the EIA suggests that while demand continues to grow, it will do so at a moderated pace due to economic factors and changes in consumption patterns. - The continued, though potentially moderated, production increase in non-OPEC+ countries points towards an adequately supplied market, which could prevent a significant rise in oil prices unless there are unexpected substantial disruptions. - The persistent efforts of OPEC+ to maintain production cuts to support prices are critical, but the potential for higher non-OPEC+ production might offset these efforts to some extent. - Geopolitical instability and disruptions can cause temporary spikes in oil prices; however, the longer-term impact might be balanced by the overall supply and demand dynamics. - The increasing focus on energy efficiency and the transition to alternative energy sources are long-term trends that could dampen oil demand growth. Based on these considerations and the balance between supply growth, moderated demand increase, continued OPEC+ production discipline, and the potential for geopolitical influences, I project a modest influence on the upward trajectory of oil prices. Therefore, assuming geopolitical tensions do not lead to prolonged disruptions and alternative energy adoption continues at its current pace: The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $84 USD per barrel.