Considering the information provided from various sources, including analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Goldman Sachs, OPEC+ decisions, market trends and geopolitical influences, here are some critical bullet points that can inform a forecast on the oil price by the end of the 2024 calendar year: - The EIA significantly increased its 2024 forecast for Brent crude to $94.91/b and forecast West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to average $90.91/b. - Goldman Sachs predicts crude oil prices to trade between $70 and $100 a barrel in 2024, reflecting factors such as slowing oil demand growth, robust non-OPEC production growth, and the possibility of OPEC bringing back some of its reduced production. - OPEC+ production cuts, including voluntary reductions by key members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, are contributing to a tighter global oil market. - Global oil demand is expected to continue growing, reaching 102.24 million b/d in 2024 according to the EIA, despite a somewhat decelerating macroeconomic environment. - Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and negotiations among OPEC+ countries regarding 2024 production quotas, could introduce volatility and potential sharp price rallies or drawdowns. - Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights suggest that oil prices will likely hover above $80/bbl and could inch closer to $90/bbl by Q3 2024, depending on supply-demand balances and OPEC+'s actions. - The global oil market's supply-demand balance is expected to show oversupply and stock builds in the first half of 2024, with a potential deficit seen only by Q3 2024. Based on these points, there are several factors at play that could influence oil prices in both upward and downward directions, including OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical tensions, and global demand trends. While there is a consensus among different analysts that prices could range widely between $70 to $100 per barrel, the stronger emphasis on tightening supply due to OPEC+ cuts and gradual demand recovery leads to a more bullish outlook for the latter half of 2024. **Forecast Logic and Rationale:** Given the expectations of a tighter oil market due to OPEC+ production cuts, alongside a rebound in global oil demand and potential geopolitical risks that usually exert upward pressure on prices, a forecast towards the higher end of the analysts' ranges seems reasonable. However, acknowledging the significant uncertainties and potential for increased non-OPEC production to offset OPEC+ cuts, a moderate stance within the provided ranges is prudent. **Forecast:** Taking into account the interplay of these factors, a balanced forecast considering both bullish and bearish trends would position the price forecast in the upper-middle range of the outlined predictions. Therefore, The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $92 USD per barrel.