Based on the provided information, here are the critical bullet points extracted from the content: 1. **OPEC+ Production Cuts**: Various sources and analyses indicated that production cuts by OPEC+, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have been contributing to a tightening of the global oil markets. These cuts are expected to continue into 2024, affecting supply dynamics and potentially supporting higher oil prices. 2. **Global Demand and Supply Dynamics**: Despite the production cuts, overall global oil demand is expected to grow, albeit at a slower pace due to potential economic headwinds. Non-OPEC production, especially outside of the US, is expected to remain robust. 3. **Geopolitical Risks and Uncertainties**: Increased geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, could lead to short-term volatility in oil prices. While direct impacts on supply have been minimal so far, these tensions contribute to market uncertainty. 4. **US Economic Context**: There is a 30% to 40% likelihood of a US recession over the next 12 months, as per Goldman Sachs' Asset & Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group. A recession may impact oil demand growth, adding a layer of complexity to price forecasts. 5. **Price Forecasts**: Various forecasts suggest that oil prices could trade between $70 and $100 per barrel throughout 2024. Goldman Sachs warns that prices could accidentally exceed $100 per barrel by the end of 2024 due to extended OPEC+ cuts. The US Energy Information Administration significantly raised its price forecast for 2024, expecting Brent crude to average around $94.91/b and WTI crude at $90.91/b. With these points in mind, the key factors influencing the forecast include OPEC+ production decisions, global demand amidst potential economic slowdowns, geopolitical risks that could induce volatility, and the acknowledgment of a range of forecasted prices by reputable financial and energy information sources. **Forecast Rationale**: Given the noted production cuts by OPEC+ and the potential for continued geopolitical tensions to cause short-term price spikes, there's a foundation for expecting higher oil prices in 2024 compared to recent averages. However, the potential for slowed demand growth due to economic factors, including a possible US recession, could moderate these increases. The forecasts by Goldman Sachs and the EIA, acknowledging a price range between $70 and $100 with possibilities of spikes beyond $100, point to a higher baseline for oil prices due to supply tightness and geopolitical risks, counterbalanced by demand uncertainties linked to economic conditions. **Forecast**: Considering the balance of these factors — supply constraints due to OPEC+ cuts, potential demand dampening from an economic downturn, and geopolitical risks — my forecast leans towards a cautious but elevated pricing scenario for 2024. The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $95 USD per barrel. This forecast assumes that OPEC+ maintains some level of production restraint, that geopolitical tensions continue to induce risk premiums without resulting in significant long-term supply disruptions, and that global economic conditions do not significantly deteriorate beyond current recession risk expectations.