Based on the information provided, here are the critical bullet points extracted to inform the forecast logic: 1. **Voluntary Production Cuts by OPEC+**: OPEC+ has undertaken voluntary production cuts, significantly influencing oil market tightness and price movements. 2. **Price Movements and Predictions**: There have been substantial increases in oil prices in the period from June to September 2023, with future price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil showing a notable rise in 2024 compared to 2023. 3. **Global Demand and Supply Dynamics**: Global oil demand is expected to grow, albeit at a rate slightly adjusted downwards. Non-OPEC production growth is robust, and there's anticipation of OPEC bringing back some reduced production. 4. **US Production Outlook**: The US crude oil production forecast shows growth, highlighting the US's contribution to global oil supply trends. 5. **Geopolitical Tensions and Risks**: Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and production policy by major oil-exporting countries, present potential for market volatility. 6. **Price Range Predictions and Volatility**: While stable price ranges are predicted, the potential for sharp increases due to macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks remains. 7. **Global Economic Outlook Impacts**: The global economic outlook, including recession risks and financial conditions, plays a significant role in demand forecasts and thereby oil prices. 8. **Energy Transition Impacts**: The ongoing energy transition and its impact on oil demand and production strategies are critical long-term considerations. Based on the bullet points gathered, the logical approach to forecasting oil prices would consider several dimensions, including the balance between supply and demand led by production cuts and growth expectations, geopolitical tensions and risks that can cause sudden price spikes or drops, and overarching global economic conditions that influence oil demand. **Forecast Rationale**: Given the intricate balance between supply cuts, anticipated demand growth, and potential geopolitical disruptions, there's a consensus expectation for higher oil prices in 2024. However, the actual price movement would critically depend on the extent to which OPEC+ manages production cuts, the pace of global economic recovery or downturn, and unforeseen geopolitical events impacting supply channels. **Forecast**: Considering the upward trend in oil prices in the latter half of 2023, ongoing production cuts by OPEC+, and the expected global demand for oil, we can project a cautious but upward pricing trend for 2024. **Forecast Statement**: "The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $95 USD per barrel." This forecast aligns with the trends observed and anticipates continued but moderated growth in prices influenced by managed supply, growing but slightly adjusted demand forecasts, and the ever-present variable of geopolitical risks.