**Extracted Key Points:** 1. **General Expectations for Higher Prices:** Most forecasts agree on higher global oil prices in 2024. 2. **Price Range:** Forecasts for Brent crude oil prices in 2024 mostly hover around the $90-per-barrel range. 3. **Geopolitical Uncertainty:** Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine, tensions between the U.S. and China, and Middle East conflicts, could potentially impact oil prices unpredictably. 4. **OPEC's Role:** OPEC and its production policies will be a significant factor in oil price trends in 2024. Recent production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia have already had a noticeable impact on prices. 5. **Impact of Recession Concerns:** While there are concerns about a potential recession influencing demand, the possibility of elevated prices due to geopolitical tensions appears more likely. 6. **Capacity and Production Levels:** Spare production capacity and non-OPEC production growth are expected to play crucial roles. However, OPEC+ is anticipated to maintain some level of production restraint. 7. **Market Balance Predictions:** Despite potential geopolitical shocks, there is a consensus that the global oil market will remain relatively balanced, with production growth offsetting OPEC cutbacks. 8. **EIA Forecasts and Market Adjustments:** The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts Brent crude to average $93 per barrel in 2024, with global production growth and relatively balanced markets. 9. **Volatility Expectations:** While a stable price range is forecasted, short-term price volatility remains likely due to geopolitical uncertainties. 10. **Potential for Price Shocks:** Analyses suggest a risk of price spikes, particularly if Middle East tensions escalate or in the event of supply disruptions. **Logic and Rationale for Forecast:** Based on the extracted key points, several factors emerge as critical in shaping the oil price forecast for 2024. Geopolitical tensions and OPEC's production policies are dominant themes, suggesting potential upward pressure on prices. The general consensus around a $90-per-barrel range reflects a balanced view of supply and demand dynamics, considering non-OPEC production growth and OPEC+ restraint. However, the potential for geopolitical events to disrupt supply or escalate tensions, particularly in the Middle East, introduces a significant volatility factor. While a balanced market might typically moderate prices, these uncertainties could cause sharp, albeit likely temporary, spikes in prices. Moreover, the possibility of recessionary pressures might ordinarily suggest downward pressure on prices due to reduced demand. Still, the overall sentiment leans towards the factors that could drive prices up, outweighing recession concerns. Given these considerations, the prediction must account for expected market balance adjustments, OPEC's strategic decisions, and the unpredictable impact of geopolitical events, which altogether suggest a cautious but upward trend in prices within the forecasted range. **Forecast:** The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $92 USD per barrel. This forecast takes into account the expected market dynamics, including continued OPEC+ production management, geopolitical risks that could lead to temporary price spikes, and a generally balanced but cautious market outlook. It represents a middle ground within the discussed forecasts, acknowledging both the potential for upward pressures and the possibility of market adjustments to maintain balance.