Based on the provided content, here are the critical bullet points to consider in formulating the oil price prediction: ### EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: - Expect higher crude oil prices in the second half of 2023 and into 2024 due to persistent inventory drawdowns. - Brent crude oil price expected to increase to mid-$80 per barrel range by the end of 2024, up from an average of $75 per barrel in June 2023. - West Texas Intermediate crude oil price expected to follow a similar trend, maintaining a $5 discount to Brent. - OPEC+ agreement extended to end of 2024 could tighten supply and subsequently push prices up. - Production cuts by OPEC members and higher petroleum consumption estimated to lead to an average inventory drawdown of 0.4 million barrels per day (b/d) until the end of 2024. - Saudi Arabia is expected to produce less than its 2022 peak, contributing to the overall production restraint by OPEC+. - World petroleum consumption growth led by non-OECD countries to increase by 1.6 million b/d from 2022, with significant contributions expected from China and India. - Oil prices are less volatile in 2023 compared to the period between 2020 and 2022, but significant changes in production and consumption could alter this stability. ### Market Price and Factors: - Current market prices for WTI Crude and Brent Crude show a slight decline, with recent figures around $74 and $79 respectively. - OPEC Basket, a weighted average of oil prices from different OPEC members, has also shown a slight decrease. - Potential demand growth from Asia may push prices higher. ### Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and Other Bank Forecasts: - Barclays lowered its 2024 Brent oil price forecast to $93/b, citing demand concerns. - Goldman Sachs predicts Brent hitting $100/b by June 2024 due to tightening supply. - S&P Global Commodity Insights forecast an average price for Dated Brent of $85/b for the year 2024. ### Potential Risk Factors and Variables: - Impact of geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions. - OPEC+ production decisions and compliance with cuts. - Demand shifts due to global economic performance and energy transition trends. - Additional capacity from non-OPEC producers could balance the market. - The degree of impact from the conflict between Israel and Hamas and its influence on Middle East oil supply. ### Logic and Rationale for Forecast: - The consensus among reports suggests a tight oil market influenced by OPEC+ cuts, potentially leading to higher prices. - Non-OECD demand, particularly from China and India, is expected to support higher prices. - Geopolitical stability and production decisions by major oil producers like Saudi Arabia will significantly impact prices. - Goldman Sachs' forecast of reaching $100/b by mid-2024 indicates potential for short-term spikes, but overall average prices expected to be lower. - With mixed signals from banks and considering economic headwinds, the forecast might lean towards the conservative side of the top-end predictions. - Increased U.S. output and potential non-OPEC growth may offset some tightening caused by OPEC+ cuts. - Risks of further escalation in the Middle East could provide upward pressure on prices, but the exact impact is uncertain. Considering the information and analysis above, the following forecast is prudent: The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $89 USD per barrel. This forecast takes a position slightly conservative relative to the higher predictions from Goldman Sachs and other analysts, accounting for potential increased supply from the U.S. and non-OPEC countries, and balances it with geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production cuts.