Based on the content provided above, here is a step-by-step analysis culminating in a forecast for the price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year. ### Critical Bullet Points Extracted 1. **EIA Forecasts and Factors Influencing Oil Prices** - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will increase to the mid-$80 per barrel range by the end of 2024. - Factors contributing to this forecast include moderate inventory drawdowns and production cuts from OPEC members. 2. **OPEC+ Production Cuts** - OPEC+ members have agreed to extend crude oil production cuts through the end of 2024 to manage supply and influence prices. - Saudi Arabia announced additional voluntary production cuts, contributing to a tighter supply and lifting market sentiment. 3. **Rising Demand** - The EIA expects petroleum consumption to increase, especially from non-OECD countries like China and India, leading to higher demand for oil. 4. **Current Market Prices** - As of the latest information, Brent and WTI crude oil prices are around $81.93 and $76.56 per barrel, respectively. 5. **Analyst Forecasts and Market Sentiment** - Analysts from major banks forecast a median Brent price of $85 for 2024, citing demand growth and potential supply disruptions as key factors. - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast to $70-$90 per barrel, while Citigroup predicts an average price of $75, taking into account slower demand growth and higher U.S. output. ### Logic and Rationale for Forecast Based on the provided content, the forecast for oil prices by the end of 2024 must consider several dynamic and interrelated factors: - OPEC+ production cuts, voluntary reductions by key members, and their adherence to these cuts suggest a tighter supply market. - Rising global demand, particularly from emerging economies, will continue to put upward pressure on prices. - Analyst predictions from major financial institutions indicate a general consensus around prices hovering in the mid-to-upper $80s with potential peaks due to unforeseen disruptions. - Current trends and geopolitical factors including actions by major oil-producing countries and global economic recovery trajectories post-pandemic. ### Forecast Considering both the upward pressures from increased demand and controlled supply due to OPEC+ strategies, alongside the range provided by major analysts, a balanced forecast must also account for potential volatility due to geopolitical tensions, pandemic recovery rates, and shifts in energy policies affecting green energy adoption rates. Given these factors, and placing significant weight on the strategic actions by OPEC+ to manage supply — which has historically been effective in controlling global oil prices — while also considering the analyst outlooks and current geopolitical and economic climates, a forecast that leans towards the higher end of current predictions but still within the analyst ranges seems most prudent. Therefore, by integrating the supplied data points, analyst forecasts, and recognizing the potential for both demand growth and supply-side management to influence market conditions: **The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $85 USD per barrel.** This forecast is closely aligned with the median analyst predictions, accounts for OPEC+'s continued influence on the market, and acknowledges the complex web of factors that could sway this price in either direction.