Based on the content provided, here are the critical bullet points to inform the forecasting of Aurora Innovation's potential to generate revenue in 2024: 1. **Partnership with Continental:** Aurora Innovation has entered into an exclusive partnership with technology company Continental. This partnership is aimed at delivering the first commercially scalable generation of Aurora’s flagship integrated hardware and software system, the Aurora Driver, catering to the trucking industry. 2. **Launch of Aurora Horizon:** The collaboration anticipates the launch of Aurora Horizon, Aurora’s subscription trucking service underpinned by the Aurora Driver, in 2024. This service is designed to offer a safer, more reliable, predictable, and cost-efficient driver service to supplement human driver supply. 3. **Operational Terminals and Routes:** Aurora has commenced operations on commercial-ready terminals in Dallas and Houston, preparing for the planned launch of driverless trucking between these locations in late 2024. These terminals are essential for housing, maintaining, preparing, inspecting, and deploying autonomous trucks at a commercial scale. 4. **Infrastructure for Commercial Operations:** Aurora has developed a terminal blueprint to maximize the time autonomous trucks are on the road hauling freight, including on-site weigh stations for enhanced pre-trip inspections. Aurora’s terminals and services are online a year ahead of the planned commercial driverless launch, signaling significant preparatory investments for commercial operations. 5. **Pilot Customer Operations:** Prior to the expected launch of driverless operations, Aurora’s terminals are already supporting trucks as they haul more than 75 loads a week for pilot customers. This demonstrates Aurora's capability and readiness to support commercial operations. 6. **Command Center Support for Commercial Operations:** Aurora is preparing its Command Center to support around-the-clock commercial operations, including a team of remote specialists who monitor and provide guidance to the active fleet of Aurora-powered trucks. 7. **Cautionary Statement on Forward-Looking Statements:** The press release does contain cautionary statements regarding forward-looking projections, including but not limited to the development, scaling, and market demand for autonomous trucking solutions. It highlights risks and uncertainties that may cause actual performance or achievements to differ materially from those anticipated. **Rationale for Forecast:** Given the strategic partnership with Continental, the establishment of operational terminals, the planned launch of Aurora Horizon in 2024, and the ongoing pilot operations, Aurora Innovation appears poised to transition from a pre-revenue stage into generating revenue through its autonomous trucking services and subscription model. However, the cautionary note in the press release and the complexity inherent in pioneering autonomous trucking at scale suggest some level of uncertainty in achieving commercial success within the specified timeframe. Considering the preparations underway, partnerships formed, and the addressing of essential infrastructure and regulatory compliance (e.g., enhanced pre-trip inspections), Aurora Innovation is making demonstrable progress toward commercial operations. Still, challenges such as technical, regulatory, or market adoption rates that are not fully quantifiable at this stage could affect the outcome. **Forecast:** Taking into account both the promising advancements Aurora Innovation has made toward launching its services and the inherent risks of pioneering technology in a nascent market, my forecast is cautiously optimistic. The probability that Aurora Innovation will generate revenue in 2024, as reported in its financial filings with the SEC, is 0.80.