Based on the information provided from various resources, the following critical points have been extracted to inform the forecast for July 2024 being the hottest on record: 1. **ENSO Status and Forecast**: As of early 2024, strong El Niño conditions are present in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The forecasts indicate a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral conditions is likely by April-June 2024, with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024. 2. **Historical Patterns of ENSO**: Historically, El Niño and La Niña events tend to develop during Apr-Jun and reach their maximum strength during Oct-Feb. These patterns typically persist for 9-12 months and recur every 2 to 7 years. 3. **Temperature Anomalies**: The presence of strong El Niño conditions is associated with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. 4. **Model Forecasts**: Almost all models predict a continuation of the El Niño event during the boreal winter and spring of 2024, rapidly weakening thereafter. ENSO-neutral conditions become the most likely category in Apr-Jun, and May-Jul 2024. A transition to La Niña is considered most probable by Jul-Sep 2024. **Logic and Rationale for Forecast**: The presence of a strong El Niño event through the boreal winter and spring of 2024 suggests increased likelihood of higher global temperatures due to the associated warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. El Niño events typically influence global weather patterns, often resulting in hotter and drier conditions in various regions. The transition to ENSO-neutral and eventually to La Niña conditions by mid-2024 could influence weather patterns differently across regions. However, given that the strongest impact of El Niño is often observed during the boreal winter, the residual effects of the event may still contribute to higher temperatures globally in the following months, including July 2024. Considering the historical impact of El Niño events on global temperatures and the forecasted presence of strong El Niño conditions during the early parts of 2024, it is reasonable to predict an increased probability of July 2024 being among the hottest on record. However, the eventual transition to La Niña and its typical cooling effect on global temperatures introduce uncertainty regarding the extent of this warmth. **Forecast**: The probability that July 2024 is the hottest on record is 0.65 (probability value between 0.00 and 1.00). This forecast incorporates the influence of the strong El Niño event during the early part of 2024 and the historical tendency for such events to result in higher global temperatures, while also considering the uncertainty introduced by the transition to ENSO-neutral and potential La Niña conditions by mid-2024.