Based on the provided documents, here are the critical bullet points extracted to inform the forecast: - **Geopolitical Tensions and Production Cuts**: Heightened tensions in the Middle East, specifically the Israel-Hamas war, OPEC+ voluntary production cuts by major oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including relations between the U.S. and China and the war in Ukraine. - **Global Demand and Supply Dynamics**: A predicted global economic expansion of 2.9% in 2024 by the IMF, and expectations of global oil demand reaching new record highs. Despite this, forecasting oil prices remains challenging due to potential unplanned production disruptions. - **Strategic Reserves and Production Capacity**: The strategic moves by the U.S. to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve at certain price points, and the existence of elevated spare production capacity that might limit price shocks. - **Market Analysts’ Forecasts**: Variations in oil price forecasts for 2024, with consensus coalescing around the $90-$100 per barrel range. Forecasts are subject to significant change based on economic and market conditions. - **Impact of Existing and Emerging Conflicts**: How the continuation of the war in Ukraine, U.S.-China relations, and the Israel-Hamas war could affect oil supply and prices, with specific attention to potential disruptions in key areas like the Strait of Hormuz. - **Oil Price Volatility**: Acknowledgment of the likelihood of considerable volatility in oil prices due to macroeconomic uncertainties and heightened geopolitical risks, despite a stable price range forecast. - **OPEC’s Influence**: The pivotal role of OPEC+ production policy and discipline in supporting oil prices and balancing the global market. Combining these points, we observe a complex interplay of factors influencing oil prices, including geopolitical risks, supply and demand dynamics, and strategic reserves management. Despite the current volatility and varying analyst forecasts, the consensus tends towards higher oil prices in 2024, propelled by geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production cuts, and resilient global demand. **Forecast Logic and Rationale**: Given the geopolitical tensions that can disrupt supply, coupled with sustained global demand and OPEC+ strategies to manage production, there is significant upward pressure on oil prices. However, the existence of elevated spare production capacity and strategic petroleum reserves might act as dampeners to extreme price shocks. Acknowledging these elements and aligning with the average analyst forecast, especially considering potential transitory price spikes due to unforeseen geopolitical events, a reasonable prediction falls within the established consensus range. **Forecast**: Considering the collected bullet points and discussion, a balanced evaluation of the pressures driving both supply and demand, and the potential for geopolitical events to temporarily amplify price movements: The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $95 USD per barrel.