**Critical Bullet Points:** - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects moderate inventory drawdowns due to higher petroleum consumption outstripping supply. - The forecast Brent crude oil price increases to mid-$80 per barrel range by end of 2024 from the June 2023 average of $75 per barrel. - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is expected to maintain a $5 discount to Brent crude. - OPEC+ agreed to extend crude oil production cuts through the end of 2024, which were initially set to expire at the end of 2023. - Saudi Arabia announced a voluntary oil production cut of 1 million barrels per day (b/d) for July and August 2023. - Saudi Arabia produced about 10% of global petroleum and other liquid fuels as of June 2023. - OPEC production is forecasted to average 33.9 million b/d in 2024, down from the 2022 peak. - Non-OPEC petroleum consumption expected to grow, especially in China and India. - Oil price volatility in 2023 was considerably less than between 2020 and 2022. - Global financial analysis firm Goldman Sachs revised oil price forecasts to a range of $70-$90 per barrel for 2024, citing a balanced market. - Further Goldman Sachs analysis suggests that price shocks related to Middle East conflict could reduce economic growth and increase inflation. - Oilprice.com suggests that geopolitical uncertainties could lead to price volatility, and significant production outages are possible. - Top U.S. banks predict a median Brent price of $85 for 2024, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its forecast to $70-$90 per barrel and Citigroup predicting an average price of $75. - Fitch Ratings warns that oil price shocks could lead to tighter financial conditions and corrections in financial markets. - S&P Global suggests that OPEC+ production policies will be key in dictating oil prices in 2024, forecasting prices hovering between $80-$90 per barrel. - Investment Strategy Group at Goldman Sachs forecasts oil trading between $70 and $100 a barrel in 2024, factoring in potential US recession risks and solid non-OPEC production growth. - Output policies of major oil producers will heavily influence the price of oil with Saudi Arabia and Russia's voluntary production cuts playing a crucial role. **Forecast Rationale:** Based on the bullet points above, the forecast considers OPEC+ production cuts, expected demand growth, particularly from non-OECD countries, industry analysts' predictions, geopolitical risks, and the possibility of a global economic slowdown or recession. - **OPEC+ Production Cuts**: Extended production cuts by OPEC+ members, particularly from major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, create a strong foundation for higher oil prices due to a tighter supply in the market. - **Demand Growth**: The forecasted growth in petroleum consumption in non-OECD countries, driven by economies like China and India, supports higher oil prices due to increased demand. - **Analysts’ Predictions**: Goldman Sachs’ expectation of oil prices ranging between $70 and $90, along with other major financial institutions' median predictions around $85, suggests an upward trend but with a ceiling due to expected market balance. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The Middle East's ongoing tensions and events may impact oil supplies and cause price volatility, potentially driving prices up if a significant disruption occurs. - **Economic Uncertainties**: The global economic outlook, including recession risks, could dampen demand and put downward pressure on prices. However, this may be counterbalanced by disciplined OPEC+ production cuts. Considering the above factors and the current trajectory suggested by various expert analyses, the price of oil is likely to see upward pressure but within a range defined by market supply-demand balances and geopolitical influences. The risk of unexpected supply disruptions or intensified geopolitical events could push prices towards the higher end of forecasts, while significant global economic downturns could create downward pressure. **Forecast:** The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $85 USD per barrel.