Given the additional information and developments up to February 11, 2024, here's an adjusted forecast justification: JUSTIFICATION: The initial forecast was built on the partnership with Continental, the announcement of Aurora Horizon's expected launch in 2024, the operational readiness of commercial terminals, the Command Center for round-the-clock operations, and the ongoing operations with over 75 loads a week for pilot customers. These factors strongly supported the prediction that Aurora Innovation is well-positioned to generate revenue in 2024. New facts to consider: - **Commercial-Ready Route and Terminal Operations**: Aurora has successfully opened its first commercial-ready route between Dallas and Houston, indicating a significant milestone towards the actual launch of their service. The operational readiness of these terminals to support and service driverless trucks underscores Aurora's transition from preparation to execution phase. - **Partnership for Scalable Solutions**: The partnership with Continental not only focuses on developing the technology but also on creating a scalable business model for the Aurora Driver system. This includes an industry-first hardware-as-a-service model, promoting adoption and facilitating broader market penetration. - **Preparation for Commercial Launch**: Aurora's preparations for commercial operations, including a Command Center ready to support the active fleet, enhance confidence in their operational capabilities to manage and scale up their driver-as-a-service offerings. - **Market Demand Indications**: The strategic importance of the Dallas-Houston corridor, with nearly half of all truck freight in Texas moving along it, paired with Aurora’s terminals' operational capabilities, highlights a deliberate targeting of key logistics routes likely to engender revenue upon service launch. While these developments reinforce expectations of Aurora generating revenue in 2024, it’s crucial to balance optimism with caution regarding the inherent risks of integrating emerging technologies into commercial markets, regulatory approvals, and the actual market adoption pace. The forward-looking statements disclaimer in the press releases also serves as a reminder of potential challenges and unpredictable factors that could influence the actual outcome. **Updated Forecast**: Considering the progress made towards commercial readiness, the tactical selection of initial service routes, and the backing from partnerships geared towards scalability and market penetration, the probability that Aurora Innovation will generate revenue in 2024 appears stronger. However, acknowledging the cautious note in the provided press release about forward-looking statements and the complexities of deploying autonomous trucking services, a slight adjustment to account for unforeseen challenges is prudent. The probability that Aurora Innovation will generate revenue in 2024, as reported in its financial filings with the SEC, is updated to **0.85**, reflecting increased confidence in their operational progress and market entry preparations, tempered by an understanding of the challenges still faced by emerging technologies in achieving commercial scale.