PREDICTION: 0.55 JUSTIFICATION: Revisiting the information and forecasts available up to February 2024, we can refine our prediction regarding the probability that July 2024 will be the hottest on record by considering the most recent climate data and forecasts: 1. **ENSO Status Transition**: The current forecasts suggest a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral conditions by April-June 2024, with a significant possibility of La Niña developing by June-August 2024. This transition period is crucial since the diminishing El Niño conditions are expected to reduce its warming influence on global temperatures as we approach mid-2024. 2. **Impact of La Niña**: The predicted emergence of La Niña conditions by mid-2024 introduces a cooling influence on global climate patterns. La Niña typically leads to cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific, which can offset some of the warming effects experienced during El Niño phases. 3. **Recent Historical Heat Records**: Given that July 2023 was the warmest July on record, and considering a sequence of record-breaking warm Julys, the persistence of above-average global temperatures is evident. However, the potential cooling effect of the anticipated La Niña must be factored into projections for July 2024. 4. **Model Forecasts and Uncertainties**: Model forecasts indicate a rapid weakening of El Niño conditions by spring 2024, followed by a likely transition to La Niña. While models are consistent in forecasting this shift, the exact timing and impact of La Niña development on global temperatures add uncertainty to the July 2024 temperature outcome. **Logic and Rationale for Revised Forecast**: The initial phase of 2024 is characterized by strong El Niño conditions, which historically correlate with increased global temperatures. However, the forecasted transition to ENSO-neutral and the inception of La Niña conditions by the boreal summer introduce a cooling factor that could moderate the global temperature increase. Considering these factors, the probability forecast must account for both the residual warming effects of the preceding El Niño event and the onset of cooling influences from the developing La Niña. While it is plausible that the first half of 2024 could experience higher temperatures due to El Niño, the cooling influence of La Niña could mitigate these effects as we progress into July 2024. **Revised Forecast**: Taking into account the expected weakening of El Niño, the forecasted development of La Niña conditions, and their respective influences on global climate patterns, the revised probability that July 2024 will be the hottest on record is adjusted to 0.55. This revised forecast reflects the continued trend of above-average global temperatures while also acknowledging the potential moderating effects of the anticipated La Niña on global weather patterns in mid-2024.