Based on the provided information, here are the critical bullet points extracted to inform the forecast: 1. **Geopolitical Uncertainty and Conflicts**: The situation in Ukraine, tensions between the U.S. and China, and the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis heighten geopolitical uncertainty, potentially affecting oil supply and prices. 2. **OPEC+ Supply Cuts**: Saudi Arabia and Russia, significant OPEC+ members, have committed to production cuts, tightening the global oil market and supporting higher prices. 3. **Global Demand**: Despite concerns about a potential recession, global oil demand continues to grow, supported by economic recovery, which may keep upward pressure on oil prices. 4. **Strategic Petroleum Reserves**: The U.S. government's decision to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve once prices hit specific points (e.g., $72 per barrel) could support higher oil prices by indicating a readiness to manage excessive price drops. 5. **Spare Production Capacity**: Elevated spare production capacity could limit the upside price potential from any unexpected shock, suggesting that while prices may rise, there is a mechanism that could prevent runaway increases. 6. **Economic Growth Forecasts**: Economists' predictions about a global economic slowdown or potential recession could affect oil demand and prices, with a significant negative impact only expected if a shock pushes prices substantially higher than current forecasts. 7. **Oil Price Forecasts for 2024**: Various forecasts suggest oil prices could range between $70 and $100 a barrel, with some forecasts predicting average Brent crude prices around $93 per barrel and others suggesting potential spikes above $100 per barrel in case of more pronounced supply disruptions. 8. **Impact of Oil Price on Economic Growth**: Higher oil prices could reduce global economic growth, with models suggesting a potential 0.4 percentage point decrease in growth should prices reach significantly higher levels than current forecasts. Given these points, the forecast logic considers the current geopolitical tensions and supply constraints from OPEC+ as upward pressures on oil prices. At the same time, potential economic slowdowns could temper demand and prevent prices from skyrocketing, as could the mitigation effects of spare production capacity. There's a consensus around moderate price increases with an acknowledgment of the high volatility and unpredictability due to geopolitical risks. Based on the compiled information and considering both the upward pressures from supply cuts and geopolitical risks, and the potential dampening effects of economic factors and strategic interventions: **The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $95 USD per barrel.** This forecast straddles the middle ground of the discussed predictions, recognizing the potential for both increases from current levels due to supply constraints and geopolitical factors, and some moderation from global economic uncertainties and strategic oil reserve policies.