To forecast the probability that July 2024 will be the hottest on record, we need to analyze various elements from the provided sources. These elements include recent trends in global temperatures, analyses concerning sea ice conditions, the effectiveness and updates in temperature analysis methodologies, and the impact of specific weather events on global climate patterns. Let's extract critical bullet points from the content to guide our analysis: 1. An official announcement from the Oregon Department of Transportation listed specific state holidays indicating normal functioning of state departments on other days, thus indirectly suggesting that climate and environmental reporting will continue without disruption on non-holiday weekdays [1]. 2. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) at the California Institute of Technology conduct extensive climate research, focusing on satellite observations to advance climate models. Their work is crucial for understanding climate trends and making accurate predictions [2]. 3. The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) highlights slower-than-average Arctic sea ice growth in January 2024, with ice thickness varying significantly across different regions. This variability is indicative of ongoing changes in the Arctic climate system, which can have broader implications for global climate [3]. 4. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has identified discontinuities in temperature records from certain stations, which have been corrected. Such corrections are crucial for the accuracy of global temperature analyses and forecasts. The GISS analysis includes updates about the global temperature anomaly, which suggests increasing temperatures [4]. Considering these points, the logic behind the forecast is based on observed trends of rising global temperatures, particularly the reports of anomalies and slower sea ice growth in polar regions. The ongoing research and adjustments in temperature recording methodologies indicate that climate scientists are refining their analyses to provide accurate data, which suggests that observed trends toward warming are under continuous scrutiny for accuracy. Given the trend of increasing temperature anomalies, the efforts to refine climate models, and the specific observation of slower-than-average Arctic sea ice growth, it's reasonable to infer that global warming trends are persisting. While specific weather events and seasonal variations can impact monthly temperature averages, the overarching trend points toward an increasing likelihood of hotter temperatures. Based on these considerations, and given the continuous adjustments and refinements in temperature analysis methodologies that aim to improve the accuracy of climate data, it is logical to conclude that there's an increased likelihood of reaching new temperature highs. However, predicting that July 2024 will specifically be the hottest on record involves considering the variability and unpredictability of specific weather events that could influence global temperatures. Therefore, taking into account the improving accuracy of climate analyses, recent trends in temperature anomalies, and sea ice conditions, alongside the inherent unpredictability of short-term weather events, it's cautious to anticipate higher-than-average global temperatures for July 2024. However, confidently stating it will be the hottest July on record requires more immediate data closer to the date. **The probability that July 2024 is the hottest on record is 0.65**. This probability reflects the observed warming trends and the continuous improvement in climate data accuracy, balanced against the uncertainty and variability inherent in climate systems and weather events. --- SOURCES --- 1: https://www.oregon.gov/odot/dmv/pages/offices/closures.aspx 2: https://climatesciences.jpl.nasa.gov/events/summer-school/about/ 3: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ 4: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/