Based on the information provided and an analysis of various factors that are affecting or could affect oil prices, here are the bullet points extracted to inform the thought process: 1. **Geopolitical Tensions and Conflicts**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions such as the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and the stalemate war in Ukraine create uncertainty that could affect oil production and supply, potentially driving up oil prices. 2. **OPEC+ Production Cuts**: Saudi Arabia and Russia, two of the biggest OPEC+ producers, have committed to production cuts to tighten the global oil market. Continued OPEC+ production restraint is expected to keep prices at current levels or push them higher. 3. **Global Oil Demand**: While the overall global economic outlook and potential recessions could dampen oil demand growth, the demand is expected to reach new record highs. The investment bank and other analysts forecast a median Brent price around the $90-$95 per barrel range for 2024, indicating expectations of relatively higher demand. 4. **Spare Production Capacity**: Elevated spare production capacity may limit upside price potential from unexpected shocks; however, the existence of considerable spare capacity serves as a buffer against severe supply disruptions. 5. **Potential Supply Disruptions**: Risk factors include tensions and conflicts in the Middle East, implications of U.S. sanctions, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Such factors could lead to short-term spikes in oil prices, though some have the potential to cause longer-term shifts. 6. **Economic Impact of Oil Price Shocks**: A significant increase in oil prices (e.g., to $120 per barrel) could adversely impact global economic growth and increase inflation, affecting consumer spending and business investment. 7. **U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve**: The U.S. policy of potentially refilling its Strategic Petroleum Reserve if prices drop to certain levels could also play a role in stabilizing or affecting market prices. Considering the above points, the forecast for oil prices by the end of the 2024 calendar year needs to account for both the ongoing geopolitical risks that could lead to price spikes and the underlying global demand and supply dynamics that could exert downward pressure on prices. While predicting exact prices is inherently speculative due to the numerous variables involved, an informed forecast would place the price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year in a range that reflects the balance between these countervailing forces. Given the current geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ strategies, and potential for demand recovery outpacing supply, an upward pressure on oil prices seems more likely than a significant downturn, barring any major global economic slowdowns. However, the potential for high volatility remains, particularly in response to short-term events. **Forecast**: The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $95 USD per barrel. This forecast is grounded in a median of the analyzed predictions and accounts for possible geopolitical escalations that could drive prices higher, offset by the existence of spare capacity and potential economic factors that could moderate demand or increase supply, hence stabilizing or slightly pushing down prices from potential peaks experienced within the year.