**Updated Probability Forecast**: Through an analysis of the most recent climate data up to February 14, 2024, and incorporating the understanding of evolving climate conditions, the forecast for July 2024 being the warmest on record has been reassessed. This reassessment considers the effects of the strong El Niño transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions, coupled with recent historical temperature anomalies and trends. **Revised Justification**: 1. **Persistence of Record-Breaking Global Temperatures**: January 2024 set a new record as the warmest January on record with a significant global surface temperature anomaly. This trend underlines the influence of the strong El Niño conditions experienced in the previous months and the overarching effect of anthropogenic global warming. 2. **Transition from El Niño to Potential La Niña**: The likelihood of transitioning to La Niña conditions by mid-2024 introduces a potential cooling effect. However, the expected onset of La Niña conditions in June-August 2024 suggests that its cooling impacts may not fully manifest or significantly influence global temperatures by July 2024. 3. **Global Warming Trend**: The continuous upward trajectory of global temperatures due to long-term climate change remains a critical backdrop. Despite potential seasonal fluctuations such as ENSO transitions, the baseline global temperature has risen, contributing to an increased likelihood of experiencing warmer months. 4. **Precipitation and Climate Pattern Anomalies**: Record precipitation and climate anomalies, including widespread flooding and significant storm activities reported in early 2024, indicate the profound and immediate impact of the prevailing El Niño conditions. Such anomalies often accompany elevated global temperatures. 5. **Historical Precedence and Recent Trends**: The experience of record warmth in the months leading up to July, particularly the noted record-breaking anomaly in January 2024, suggests a continued risk of high temperatures. The transition effects of ENSO phases and the observed record-high sea surface temperatures further complicate the climate outlook for mid-2024. **Updated Forecast**: Given the evidence of recent record-breaking global temperatures, including the warmest January on record in 2024, and the continued influence of strong El Niño conditions into the early part of the year, there is a reinforced likelihood of persistently high global temperatures leading into the summer of 2024. While the expected development of La Niña conditions could introduce a moderating effect later in the year, its impact on July temperatures is uncertain and likely limited. Considering these factors, in conjunction with the ongoing trend of global warming, **the probability that July 2024 will be the hottest on record is adjusted to 0.57**. This adjustment acknowledges the significant warming trend observed in early 2024 and the potentially delayed cooling effects of the anticipated La Niña conditions.