**Updated Probability Forecast**: In making an educated assessment of the probability that July 2024 will be the hottest July on record, recent climatic events and data trends up to February 2024 have been thoroughly analyzed. This updated forecast takes into account both the persistent impact of historical temperature records and the evolving climatic conditions characterized by the transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral and potential emergence of La Niña conditions. **Revised Justification**: 1. **Record-Breaking Early Year Temperatures**: January 2024 was recorded as the warmest January on record globally, highlighting an unprecedented start to the year in terms of global surface air and sea temperatures. The consecutive record-setting months preceding July 2024 underscore the ongoing influence of significant global warming trends and sustained above-average sea surface temperatures. 2. **Transition to ENSO-Neutral and Potential La Niña**: While the transition to ENSO-neutral conditions and the possibility of La Niña developing by mid-2024 suggest a cooling influence, it is crucial to note that such transitions have historically taken time to manifest their global temperature effects fully. The cooling impact of La Niña may not be immediate or strong enough to counteract the prevailing trends of global warming by July 2024. 3. **Continued Global Warming Trend**: The unwavering upward trend in global temperatures due to anthropogenic climate change remains a potent factor. Despite the natural variability introduced by phenomena like ENSO, the long-term warming trend poses a consistent risk of hotter conditions, potentially leading to more record-setting temperatures. 4. **Observation of Unusually High Marine Air Temperatures**: The reported unusually high marine air temperatures, especially the record-setting global sea surface temperatures in January 2024, signal the immense heat accumulation in the world's oceans. Such conditions can have a delayed warming effect on global climate patterns, further elevating the temperatures experienced during mid-2024. 5. **Historical Context and Recent Anomalies**: The unparalleled start to 2024 with the warmest January on record, combined with the ongoing El Niño since mid-2023 before its weakening, set a precedent for potentially extreme climatic conditions in the months leading up to July. The persistent anomalies in global precipitation and storm activities underscore the complex interplay of factors affecting global temperature trends. **Updated Forecast**: Considering the escalation in record-breaking temperatures seen in the early months of 2024, the persistent anomalous global climatic conditions, and the delayed cooling effect expected from the anticipated transition to La Niña, **the probability that July 2024 will be the hottest on record is adjusted to 0.63**. This updated forecast reflects the significant impact of the warmest January on record and sustained high sea surface temperatures. It also acknowledges the uncertainties around the timing and magnitude of the cooling effects associated with the potential development of La Niña conditions, against the backdrop of a long-term global warming trend.