### Bullet Points Extraction 1. **EIA Forecasts for 2024** - EIA forecasts crude oil prices to increase through 2024 due to demand rising above supply. - Predicts Brent crude oil price to reach the mid-$80 per barrel range by the end of 2024, up from the June 2023 average of $75 per barrel. - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price expected to follow a similar path with a $5 discount to Brent. - OPEC+ extended crude oil production cuts through the end of 2024, with Saudi Arabia announcing an additional cut of 1.0 million barrels per day for July and August 2023. - Global petroleum consumption growth led by non-OECD countries, particularly China and India. - Oil prices in 2023 have been less volatile compared to previous years. 2. **OPEC's Strategic Decisions** - OPEC's decisions to extend production cuts impact crude oil prices significantly. - The voluntary production cuts by major oil exporters like Saudi Arabia and Russia tighten global oil markets. - OPEC+ production dips projected to sharpen price increases in 2024, influenced by Saudi and Russian commitments to production cuts. 3. **Geopolitical and Economic Factors** - The Israel-Hamas war could induce volatility in oil prices. - Economic conditions, including U.S. recession odds and Federal Reserve policies, potentially impact oil demand and price. - Goldman Sachs forecasts oil prices might reach $107 per barrel by December 2024, contingent on OPEC+ production cut decisions. - Global demand for oil is at a record high, and market dynamics are influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic policies. 4. **Impact of Non-OPEC Production and Biofuels** - Non-OPEC production growth, especially from the U.S., expected to slow down in comparison to previous rates. - Biofuels consumption increase contributes to the transportation fuel mix, potentially impacting crude oil demand. 5. **Market Volatility Factors** - Short-term market volatilities cautioned due to macroeconomic uncertainties and heightened geopolitical risks. - Potential supply disruptions from the Middle East or due to geopolitical tensions could temporarily spike prices. ### Forecast Logic and Rationale - **Supply Constraints by OPEC+**: The extended production cuts by OPEC+ and additional voluntary cuts by major producers like Saudi Arabia limit supply. This strategic restriction is poised to elevate crude oil prices, as reduced supply amidst stable or growing demand pressures prices upward. - **Global Demand Growth**: Rising petroleum consumption, particularly in emerging markets like China and India, supports strong demand. This demand, coupled with supply constraints, further exacerbates the potential for increased oil prices. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Geopolitical risks, including ongoing conflicts or potential new tensions in key oil-producing regions, can disrupt supply chains and induce price volatility. The situation in the Middle East, for instance, can contribute to short-term price spikes. - **Economic Factors**: Macroeconomic conditions, including global economic growth rates and policies of major economies like the U.S., influence oil demand. While there's potential for economic downturns to dampen demand temporarily, the overarching trend of recovery and growth post-pandemic supports stronger oil demand. - **Transition to Renewables**: The increased consumption of biofuels and a gradual transition towards renewable energy sources can temper oil demand growth over the long term. However, the immediate and medium-term impact might be limited, given current infrastructure and consumption patterns. ### Forecast Based on the extraction of critical bullet points and the logic discussed, it's reasonable to infer that market dynamics of supply constraints, robust global demand, geopolitical tensions, and economic factors converge to support a bullish outlook for oil prices by the end of the 2024 calendar year. However, the exact price point may oscillate due to unforeseen geopolitical events or significant shifts in OPEC+ policies. Considering these factors and the notable expectations from EIA and Goldman Sachs for tightened markets and price increases, I provide the following forecast for educational and speculative purposes: The price of oil by the end of the 2024 calendar year will be $95 USD per barrel. This forecast is mindful of potential volatility and the blend of contributing factors outlined.